Sep 13, 2020
10 min

Weinswig’s Weekly: Could There Be an October Surprise in Retail This Year?

Insight Report
Weinswig’s Weekly

Nitheesh NH
FROM THE DESK OF DEBORAH WEINSWIG
Could There Be an October Surprise in Retail This Year? When we think of the month of October, we think of back-to-school, the leaves starting to turn, trick-or-treating and pumpkin spice lattes. We do not normally think of a frenzied holiday shopping environment This October could be different. Target made the first move when the company announced that it was encouraging shoppers to start their holiday shopping as early as October, emphasizing that customers would enjoy greater safety by shopping early and avoiding the crowds. The company commented that it would also offer its lowest prices of the year from October. In its announcement, Target confirmed that its stores would be closed on Thanksgiving Day to give its employees and customers a break, curtailing the trend of Thanksgiving Day shopping. Since then, other retailers have followed suit, including Bed Bath & Beyond, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, Ulta Beauty, Under Armour and Walmart. Although stores have previously increasingly opened on Thanksgiving to offer an early start for holiday shopping, many things are different this year. It is possible that shoppers will indeed seek to avoid the crowds for safety reasons. As such, it is unlikely that retailers will offer in-store doorbuster deals, although they may do so online. As retailers largely had to make their holiday plans during the peak of coronavirus-related lockdowns in the US, it is also possible that they anticipated a weak shopping season and placed light orders for the holidays, limiting the quantity of inventory. Customers are also likely to see the benefits of a spread-out holiday shopping season, as it will give them more time to organize purchases if they wish to avoid busy shopping spaces. In the most recent Coresight Research weekly consumer survey, more than 55% of US consumers reported that they are avoiding shopping centers and malls, although this percentage has declined over the past several weeks. More than 40% of respondents said they are avoiding shops in general, though this trend is also slowly receding. Consumers concerned about safety will likely order more goods online or choose delivery methods such as curbside pickup or BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) to avoid entering stores. A rush of online orders could overwhelm shippers and lead to extended delivery times—another reason for consumers to shop early. Shippers are already levying holiday shipping surcharges. Amazon appears to be targeting a shopping surge in October as well. Although the company has not officially announced dates for Amazon Prime Day this year, the event is reportedly planned for early October. Last year’s US Prime Day ran for two days, reflecting the trend of ever-longer shopping events. Amazon’s Black Friday sales are expected to begin on October 26 and run for three weeks, marking an early start to the season, according to Amazon Marketplace merchant advice website Tamebay. The meaning of Black Friday—the day after Thanksgiving (when retailers typically turn profitable)—has been diluted in recent years, due to people shopping all year round and ever-earlier starts to holiday shopping. Shopping events such as Amazon Prime Day (which historically took place in July), Christmas in July and global shopping holidays such as Singles’ Day (now a month-long shopping festival) reduce the urgency of shopping right after Thanksgiving. In recent years, retailers have appeared to compete against one another to offer the first holiday deals. For many reasons, this holiday season will be very different. First of all, consumers will have fewer retailers to choose from, due to many store closures and liquidations following bankruptcy filings. Secondly, inventory availability may be light, prompting consumers to seek alternate ways of gifting, such as preowned items, e-gifting or gift cards. Finally, consumers may be reluctant to enter stores so may order more online or prioritize curbside delivery options. With so many variables this holiday season, consumers are well advised to start shopping early to ensure that they receive the goods they want in time for the holidays.
US RETAIL AND TECH HEADLINES
Kohl’s Launches New Loyalty Program Ahead of Holiday Season (September 8) Company press release
  • Kohl’s launched a new loyalty program, Kohl’s Rewards, after a successful trial run in 13 markets. The 30 million members of its existing loyalty program Yes2You Rewards will automatically become Kohl’s Rewards members.
  • Members will receive personalized deals, perks and a gift on their birthday. They will also earn 5% Kohl’s Cash on their shopping, which they will have 30 days to spend; Kohl’s will send reminders to members when they have accumulated Kohl’s Cash.
The Michaels Companies To Hire 16,000 Staff for the Holidays (September 9) ChainStoreAge.com
  • Arts and crafts retailer The Michaels Companies is looking to hire 16,000 staff for the holiday season. The retailer is among the first to make a holiday-season hiring announcement for what is expected to be a very different holiday period due to the pandemic.
  • Michaels held a seasonal hiring event this week for positions across its US stores and distribution centers. Last year, Michaels hired 15,000 seasonal employees and over 50% of them were made full-time employees after the holidays.
Neiman Marcus Receives Court Approval for Bankruptcy Plan (September 8) RetailDive.com
  • The US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas has approved Neiman Marcus’ bankruptcy plan to reorganize under Chapter 11. The restructuring will allow the retailer to get rid of $4 billion debt and some $200 million in interest expenses and leave no short-term maturities.
  • The retailer filed for bankruptcy in May and expects to emerge from bankruptcy proceedings by the end of September.
Wardrobe Launches Nationwide After New York City Beta Test (September 8) FashionUnited.uk
  • Fashion rental platform Wardrobe has launched nationwide after successful beta testing in New York City. The platform works on a peer-to-peer model, allowing users to browse the wardrobes of other users that are willing to rent their clothing.
  • The company has partnered with multiple dry cleaners to act as “Wardrobe Hubs”—locations where users can pick up and drop off clothing. In New York City, Wardrobe saw over $50,000 worth of designer clothing rented out, with many users earning over $1,000 on clothing they lent out.
Lululemon Athletica’s Direct-to-Consumer Revenues Surge 155% in Second Quarter (September 8) Company press release
  • Activewear brand Lululemon Athletica grew total revenues by 2% to $902.9 million in the second quarter. Company-operated stores’ net revenue decline of 51% was more than offset by a 155% jump in direct-to-consumer revenues, which comprised 61.4% of total revenues, versus 24.6% last year.
  • CEO Calvin McDonald stated that “2020 is likely an inflection point for lululemon and retail” as consumers shift to “working and sweating from home.” He said that the company remains “cautiously optimistic”; it is not providing guidance for the second half of the year.
EUROPE RETAIL AND TECH HEADLINES
Dixons Carphone To Offer Extended Hours on ShopLive (September 7) RetailGazette.co.uk
  • Electronics retailer Dixons Carphone plans to offer extended hours on its ShopLive initiative that facilitates video consultations between staff and shoppers, remote product demos and livestream shopping.
  • Dixons Carphone is currently running a dark-store trial at its Birmingham training facility as it looks to offer ShopLive outside regular shopping hours. The retailer said it has trained over 250 staff to operate ShopLive, which is available for all its online items. Customers will also be allowed to make payments within the video chat for items they buy after consultations.
Amazon Appoints John Boumphrey as UK Country Manager (September 7) Company press release
  • Amazon has appointed John Boumphrey as Country Manager for the UK. Boumphrey first joined Amazon as Director of Media in the UK in 2011 and is currently VP of Amazon Fashion Europe.
  • Boumphrey will begin his new role in mid-November and replaces Doug Gurr, who is leaving Amazon after nine years to take on the role of Director of the Natural History Museum.
Puig Launches New Technology To Allow Shoppers To Try Perfumes Without Smelling Them (September 9) Uk.FashionNetwork.com
  • Spanish fashion and fragrances group Puig has launched a new technology, called Ai.lice, which allows shoppers to try out perfumes without smelling them or touching the bottle. The company is currently trialing the technology at Penhaligon boutiques in the UK and Asia.
  • To use Ai.lice technology in stores, shoppers scan a QR code on a fragrance bottle or packaging. This will open a page showing the scent family and ingredients of a perfume as well as related products carried in-store.
Primark Reports Strong Post-Lockdown Recovery (September 7) Company press release
  • British apparel retailer Primark reported strong recovery after the UK lockdown was lifted, in its parent company ABF’s pre-close trading update. Primark stores reopened through May, June and July, and the company expects cumulative sales to the year-end to total close to £2 billion ($2.6 billion). The company’s adjusted operating profit is expected “to be at least at the top end of the previously advised £300–350 million ($389–453 million) range.”
  • Primark reported that since reopening, its comparable sales in the UK are likely down 12%, or down 5% if it excludes its four largest stores, which are in Birmingham, Manchester and London. Since reopening stores, Primark expects sales to be down 17% in Europe and down 9% in the US on a comparable basis.
Iceland Hires 3,000 Workers To Meet Home Delivery Demand (September 8) CityAM.com
  • UK budget supermarket Iceland is looking to hire 3,000 workers as it struggles to meet rising demand for home deliveries, prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Iceland stated that demand for deliveries increased four-fold since the UK’s lockdown measures were announced. The company’s online orders have surged 300% since August 2019. The retailer plans to grow its delivery fleet by 30% and is hiring drivers as well as in-store support staff.
ASIA RETAIL AND TECH HEADLINES
Silver Lake To Invest $1 Billion in Reliance’s Retail Arm (September 9) ETRetail.com
  • Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has announced that American private equity firm Silver Lake will invest ₹75 billion ($1.02 billion) into its subsidiary Reliance Retail Ventures Limited (RRVL) for a 1.75% stake.
  • This takes RRVL’s valuation up to nearly $59 billion and marks Silver Lake’s second billion-dollar investment in RIL. The first was a $1.35 billion investment in RIL’s mobile network operations arm Jio Platforms.
Panasonic Unveils Home Furniture Store on JD.com (September 8) RetailInAsia.com
  • Electronics maker Panasonic has launched a custom home furniture store on JD.com. The store hopes to provide “one-stop home decoration solutions that can better meet the needs of middle- and high-end customers,” according to Hailong Jin, Director of Housing Systems, Panasonic China and Northeast Asia.
  • The store launched with a livestreaming event including product showcases and special discounts on JD.com’s Super Brand Day—a campaign designed to raise brand visibility across the platform. Panasonic saw its sales across JD.com jump 1,650% on launch day.
Uniqlo To Open Biggest Macau Store This Month (September 7) InsideRetail.Asia
  • Japanese clothing retailer Uniqlo plans to open its largest store in Macau this month. The store will be located at a commercial building called Yellow House and occupy a five-story area of around 19,000 square feet.
  • The store will also be the first Uniqlo location in the region to offer its T-shirt personalization service, “UTme!.” The company will collaborate with local artists for its UTme! service and host community events in the store’s exhibition space.
Amazon Bolsters Supply Chain Capacity Ahead of Festive Season in India (September 9) TheEconomicTimes.com
  • Amazon India has announced that it will open five new sorting centers in the cities of Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Farukhnagar and Visakhapatnam. It also plans to expand eight existing centers to bolster its capacity ahead of the festive season in India.
  • The new sorting centers and the expansion of the existing eight will increase Amazon’s sortation space in India to over 2.2 million square feet across 19 states.
AS Watson Group Partners with Al-Futtaim To Enter the Middle East Market (September 8) InsideRetail.Asia
  • Asian beauty retailer AS Watson Group has partnered with retail conglomerate Al-Futtaim to introduce its Watsons retail chain to the Middle East.
  • The maiden Watsons flagship store is located in The Dubai Mall, and the Watsons e-commerce store will launch on October 1. Al-Futtaim plans to open 100 Watsons stores by the end of 2025.

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