Store Tracker Extra: More Data Each Month

In our US Store Tracker Extra monthly series, new for 2021, we offer insight into retailers’ store closure and opening announcements on a monthly basis—supplementing our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker report. We include retailer-level details on closures and openings as a percentage of total store base as well as square-footage impact. This report also offers a comparison between year-to-date announced closures and openings as of March 26, 2021, (corresponding to week 12 in our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker) versus the comparable period in 2020 (the 13 weeks ended March 27, 2020).

2021 Major US Store Closures: Proportion of Store Base and Square Footage

As of March 26, 2021, major US retailers have announced 3,158 store closures for this year. This compares to 1,948 announced closures in the comparable period of 2020, as we discuss later in this report. In March 2021, the following retailers made store closure announcements:

• Big Lots will close 19 stores in 2021, which represents around 1% of its total store base. The retailer’s closures will account for approximately 430,000 square feet of total retail space, we estimate.
• Burlington Stores will close 23 stores in 2021, which represents around 3% of its total store base. These closures will account for approximately 1.6 million square feet of total retail space, we estimate.
• Chico’s will close 40 stores in 2021,which represents around 3% of its total store base in the US. We estimate that the closures will account for around 138,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Designer brands will close 65 stores in the next four years, of which 25 will fall in 2021. The store closures for 2021 represent around 5% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 550,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Disney announced the permanent closure of 60 stores in North America by the end of 2021 as it shifts more to e-commerce. The closures represent around 30% of its store base in North America.We estimate that these closures will account for around 270,000 square feet of total retail space.
• H&M will close 37 stores in 2021, which represents around 6% of its total store base in the US. We estimate that the closures will account for around 832,500 square feet of total retail space.
• J. Jill will close 21 stores in 2021, which represents around 8% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 77,700 square feet of total retail space.
• Kirkland’s will close 12 stores in 2021, which represents around 3% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 39,500 square feet of total retail space.
• Kroger announced the closures of three stores in Los Angeles, citing increased operational costs during the pandemic and financial losses at the stores. The closures represent less than 1% of its total store base and we estimate that they will account for around 196,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Party City announced the closure of five stores by the end of 2021, which represents around 1% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 62,500 square feet of total retail space.
• Signet Jewelers will close 101 stores in North America in 2021, which represents around 4% of its total store base in the region. We estimate that the closures will account for around 213,000 square feet of total retail space.
• The Children’s Place will close 131 stores in 2021, which represents around 17% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 740,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Vera Bradley announced the closure of 10 stores in 2021, which represents around 7% of its total store base. We estimate that the closures will account for around 19,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Victoria’s Secret will close 28 stores in the US in 2021, which represents around 3% of its total store base in the US. The retailer’s closures will account for approximately 238,000 square feet of total retail space, we estimate.

In Figure 1, we provide a breakdown of estimated closures announced by various retailers, along with a representation of the proportion of their total store base that will be impacted.

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Figure 1. Year-to-Date Announced US Store Closures Estimates for 2021, by Retailer, in Comparison to Total Store Base (Listed by Most to Least Closures) [wpdatatable id=830 table_view=regular]

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Store count information for retailers in the above list is based on the third quarter of the fiscal year ended January 2021 or the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended December 2020 for most public companies. *Total store base count represented for Genesco is global and the count for Disney, Gap, Old Navy, Michaels Stores and Signet Jewelers is for North America as a US-specific breakdown could not be obtained. **Ascena Retail includes Justice, Catherines, Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, LOFT and Lou & Grey. Source: Company reports/Coresight Research Overall, the announced year-to-date closures equate to over 38.5 million square feet in closed retail space, we estimate. In Figure 2, we show the estimated square-footage impact of various retailers’ year-to-date store closure announcements for 2021.

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Figure 2. Year-to-Date Announced 2021 US Store Closures Estimates in Gross Square Feet, by Retailer (Thous.) [caption id="attachment_125170" align="aligncenter" width="725"] Ascena Retail Group includes Justice, Catherines, Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, LOFT and Lou & Grey.
Source: Company reports/Coresight Research [/caption]  

2021 Major US Store Openings: Proportion of Store Base and Square Footage 

As of March 26, 2021, major US retailers have announced 3,469 store openings. This compares to 2,441 announced openings in the comparable period of 2020, which we discuss later in this report. In March, the following retailers announced store openings for 2021:

• Amazon will open at least 12 Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go stores in 2021, representing a 16% expansion on the existing fleet of 75 Amazon brand stores. The new openings will account for around an estimated 420,000 square feet of total retail space.
• American Eagle will open 76 Aerie stores in 2021, which represents a 46% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 296,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Bath & Body Works will open 49 stores in 2021, which represents a 3% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 184,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Burlington Stores will open 92 stores in 2021, which represents a 12% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for 3.7 million square feet of total retail space, we estimate.
• Casper Sleep will open nine stores in 2021, which represents a 13% expansion of its total store fleet of 67 stores as of December 30, 2020. The new openings will account for an estimated 27,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Citi Trends will open 29 stores in 2021, representing a 5% expansion of its existing store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 391,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods will open five new stores across five US states—one Dick’s Sporting Goods store and four Warehouse Sale stores. The new stores will account for an estimated 256,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Dollar General will open 1,035 new stores in 2021, which will result in a 6% expansion of its total store fleet, building on the 996 new stores it opened in 2020. We estimate that the 2021 store openings will account for 11 million square feet of total retail space.
• Dollar Tree will open 393 new stores in 2021, resulting in a 5% expansion of its total store fleet, building on the 335 new stores it opened in 2020. We estimate that the 2021 store openings will account for 5 million square feet of total retail space.
• Fabletics announced plans to open 24 stores in 2021, which represents a 48% expansion of its current store count of 50 stores. The retailer’s store openings will account for approximately 66,000 square feet of total retail space, we estimate.
• Family Dollar will open 200 new stores in 2021, resulting in a 3% expansion of its total store fleet and building on the 335 new stores the retailer opened in 2020. We estimate that the 2021 store openings will account for 2.2 million square feet of total retail space.
• Five Below will open 158 new stores in 2021, which represents a 15% expansion of its total store fleet. The retailer opened 119 stores in 2020. We estimate the 2021 store openings will account for 1.3 million square feet of total retail space.
• Foxtrot Market, a new grocery retailer, will open 11 new stores in 2021. The company operates 10 stores as of March 2021 and the new openings will result in a 110% expansion of its total store fleet. We estimate that the store openings will account for 39,600 square feet of total retail space.
• Gap will open 28 Old Navy stores and 13 Athleta stores in 2021, which represents a 2% expansion of its total store fleet for Old navy and a 9% expansion for Athleta. The new Old Navy and Athleta openings will account for an estimated 452,000 square feet and 75,000 square feet of total retail space, respectively.
• Grocery Outlet announced plans to open 36 stores in 2021. The new stores represent an expansion of 9% on the existing store fleet of 372 stores, as of December 26, 2020. The new openings will account for an estimated 630,000 square feet of total retail space.
• H&M will open 11 stores in 2021, which represents a 2% expansion of its total store base. The new openings will account for around 247,500 square feet of total retail space, we estimate.
• Psycho Bunny, an apparel retailer, has announced plans to open 15 new stores this year. The retailer operates nine stores as of March 2021, and the new store openings will result in a 167% store fleet expansion. The openings will account for an estimated 20,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Party City will open 15 stores in 2021, representing an expansion of 2% of its total store fleet. We estimate that the new store openings will account for nearly 187,500 square feet of total retail space.
• Ross Stores will open 55 stores, comprising 37 Ross Dress for Less stores and 18 DD’s discount stores, in 2021, which represents a 3% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 1.5 million square feet of total retail space.
• Signet Jewelers will open 87 stores in North America in 2021, which represents a 4% expansion of its total store base in the region. We estimate that the openings will account for around 184,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Sprouts Farmers Market announced plans to open 20 stores in 2021, which represents a 6% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 577,000 square feet of total retail space.
• Tilly’s will open seven new locations by May 2021, representing a 1% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 52,000 square feet of total retail space.
• TJX will open 74 stores across its HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marmaxx and Sierra banners in 2021. The openings represent a 3% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 1.9 million square feet of total retail space.
• Ulta Beauty will open 39 stores in 2021, which represents a 3% expansion of its total store fleet. The new openings will account for an estimated 410,000 square feet of total retail space.

In Figure 3, we provide a breakdown of estimated openings announced by various retailers, along with a representation of the size of the expansion in proportion to their existing store base.

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Figure 3. Year-to-Date Announced US Store Openings Estimates for 2021, by Retailer, in Comparison to Total Store Base (Listed by Most to Least Openings) [wpdatatable id=831 table_view=regular]

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Store base considered for Genesco and Payless is global, while the Michaels Stores store count is for North America. Store count information for retailers in the above list is based on the third quarter of the fiscal year ended January 2021 or the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended December 2020 for most public companies.   *Total store base count represented for Athleta, Old Navy and Signet Jewelers is for North America, as a US-specific breakdown could not be obtained. **TJX Companies includes HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marmaxx and Sierra stores. Amazon includes Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go banners. Aerie includes Aerie and OFFLINE stores. Source: Company reports/Coresight Research Overall, the announced year-to-date openings equate to over 47.3 million square feet in new retail space, we estimate—that is 8.8 million square feet (or 22.9%) more than the announced closure of an estimated 38.5 million square feet discussed above. That 22.9% difference in square footage compares to a 9.8% difference in the number of announced store openings versus closures for 2021—implying that retailers opening stores are, on average, taking larger stores than those closing stores. In part, this reflects the closure of small-footprint apparel specialty stores and openings in discount formats, including off-price and dollar stores.

In Figure 4, we show the square-footage impact of various retailers’ year-to-date store opening announcements for 2021.

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Figure 4. Year-to-Date Announced 2021 US Store Openings Estimates in Gross Square Feet, by Retailer (Thous.) [caption id="attachment_125171" align="aligncenter" width="725"] TJX Companies includes HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marmaxx and Sierra stores. Amazon includes Amazon Fresh and Amazon GO banners. Aerie includes Aerie stores and OFFLINE stores.
Source: Company reports/Coresight Research [/caption]  

2021 Versus 2020: A Year-to-Date Comparison

The charts below depict the week-by-week totals of announced US store closures and openings year-to-date in 2021, as well as the comparative figures for 2020. Compared to this time last year, both store closure and opening announcement totals are ahead year-to-date in 2021. Year-to-date announced store closures in March 2021 are led by apparel retailers, which account for 1,319 closures, representing 42% of total closures. The year-to-date equivalent closures for March 2020 were led by apparel retailers, which had announced 722 closures and accounted for 37% of total announced closures. Year-to-date announced store openings in March 2021 are led by discount store retailers, which account for 1,885 openings, representing 52% of total openings. The year-to-date equivalent closures for March 2020 were also led by discount store retailers, which had announced 1,270 openings and accounted for 52% of total announced openings.

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Figure 5. US Announced Store Closures and Openings: Week-by-Week Comparison, 2021 (Top) vs 2020 (Bottom) [wpdatachart id=182]   [wpdatachart id=183]

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March 2021 spans weeks nine to 12, while the comparable period in 2020 spans weeks 10 to 13: Our tracker counts map four weeks in January 2021, versus five weeks in January 2020. Coresight Research periodically updates the count for openings and closures when there are new updates or revisions to previous announcements from companies, and this could involve retrospective revisions of totals for some weeks. Source: Company reports/Coresight Research

US Retail Bankruptcies: 2021 Versus 2020

Paper Source filed for bankruptcy in March 2021, taking the total of US bankruptcy filings so far this year to six. In the tables below, we offer a comparative view of year-to-date bankruptcy filings as of March 26, 2021 versus March 31, 2020. Our Retail Bankruptcies Databank offers a more detailed list of US and UK retail companies, restaurants and gyms that have filed for bankruptcy since March 2020.

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Figure 6. 2021 Major US Retail Bankruptcies as of March 26, 2021 [wpdatatable id=834 table_view=regular]

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*Belk exited bankruptcy one day after filing N/A – Not Available Source: Company reports/Coresight Research

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Figure 7. 2020 Major US Retail Bankruptcies as of March 31, 2020 [wpdatatable id=835 table_view=regular]

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*Fairway Market filed for bankruptcy for the second time after entering and exiting bankruptcy in 2016 N/A – Not Available Source: Company reports/Coresight Research Paper Source Card and gift retailer Paper Source has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will close 11 stores, after experiencing a sales drop of 32% in 2020. The company has a stalking horse bid from its current lenders, led by MidCap Financial. Paper Source is set to hold an auction for its business on April 21 and a sale hearing on April 30. The company currently has a total of 154 stores.

Other Major US Retail Opening Announcements in March 2021 

• 7-Eleven opened a concept store in Dallas and plans to open two more, one each in North Texas and Manassas, Virginia.
• Home and office retailer Hobby Lobby opened one new store in Alabama.
• Apparel retailerRhone opened its third store and plans to open two more by the end of 2021.

Notes Figures represent store openings and closures that occurred, or are expected to occur, in the respective calendar years, and are gross figures. For some retailers, store opening, and closure numbers are estimated, including from part-year data, global figures or announced closure/opening programs that span multiple years. Estimates are updated as companies announce details. Figures for openings and closures are gross. Total square footage being opened or closed is typically estimated from retailers’ average gross store sizes.