The US is still largely on lockdown, with nonessential businesses closed or serving customers through e-commerce where possible. A few states, however, have begun to ease lockdown restrictions and some more are expected to do the same through the first week of May. However, it may be too late for consumers to be shop in stores for gifts for Mother’s Day (May 10), meaning they have to rely instead on e-commerce.

Consumer sentiment continues to be tainted with gloom in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. The US consumer sentiment index has dropped to 71.8 in April from 101 in February, denoting the third consecutive month of decline.

We estimate Mother’s Day spending to total about $12.5–14.5 billion this year, versus the $25 billion that the National Retail Federation estimated for last year. Our projections imply a 40–50% decline, prompted by very deep declines across several spending categories.

Most retailers will need to look to e-commerce to recover sales. Nonretail services such as restaurants will bear the brunt of the decline this year, as food service, entertainment and recreation outlets stay shut. Spending on flowers, which typically forms 10% of total spending on the occasion, may be down some 30% for Mother’s Day 2020, according to the Association of Floral Importers of Florida.

For retail purchases made this year, we estimate an approximate 75:25 split for e-commerce versus stores, given the mass store closures. Residual in-store sales will be sustained by those retailers deemed essential and able to trade—including mass merchandisers, supermarkets and warehouse clubs.

Although many consumers may make additional efforts to celebrate Mother’s Day meaningfully this year, the ways they can celebrate are limited because of the social-distancing practices and shelter-at-home orders that are in place.

What Retailers Are Doing for Mother’s Day

• 1800Flowers.com is selling a curated mix of flowers, chocolates and gift baskets that have been bestsellers over the years on Mother’s Day.
• Amazon is highlighting e-gift cards with text that reads “Mom, you’re my hero” superimposed on a graphic of a female superhero, to commemorate the occasion.
• Kohl’s is offering $10 discounts on selected products when shoppers use the specified promotion code.
• Nordstrom is selling a curated collection of gifts specifically for the occasion.
• Target is offering a range of gifts along with ideas for virtual parties or at-home parties with mom, acknowledging the coronavirus lockdowns.
• Walmart is offering free delivery or pickup on select merchandise across several categories, including jewelry, cooking and baking, food gift baskets, greeting cards, flowers, photo gifts, makeup and crafts.

What Retailers Can Do To Help Consumers Shop for Mother’s Day Gifts

Retailers can get creative with their ideas to inspire shoppers and help them celebrate Mother’s Day. Whether consumers are celebrating loved ones at home or via video calls, retailers should be able to offer ideas to help them buy gifts and celebrate the occasion by offering positive messages that will help consumers take a break from the ongoing uncertainty. Retailers could look to market Mother’s Day promotions and ideas through social media channels, using engaging games, contests or polls or by simply using inspiring messaging about the role of mothers, to help drive sales.

Deferred gifting options

Retailers can offer customers deferred gifting options, such as vouchers or credit to spend on products or experiences, which they can use once restrictions are relaxed. This will support retailers with cash inflow and emphasize a message of optimism, that once everyday life returns, consumers can look forward to spending time with their loved ones.

Revamp assortment to highlight gifts that can be enjoyed at home

Retailers could modify their assortment to feature gifts that can be used or enjoyed at home and tap into trends around nesting and home improvements for spring. Gifts can include electronic gadgets, books, housewares, gardening tools, home décor and others. A number of respondents to our weekly consumer surveys have consistently indicated that they are currently buying more in some of these categories, as they are spending more time at home with families.

Highlight Mother’s Day special food at grocery stores

In the absence of dining-out options, consumers may wish to prepare a special meal for their loved one to be enjoyed at home—although the ability to be with family will be a barrier for many. Grocery retailers can highlight celebratory food or meal kits for consumers to prepare at home.

Use inspiring messaging in promotional material online and in store

Retailers can tap into the inherent optimism of spring and Mother’s Day with a focus on uplifting and inspirational messaging in marketing, including through social media.

Suggest gifts that constitute a special experience

Retailers could put together gift bundles that constitute a special experience. For example, a “spa day” basket could include beauty and personal care items themed by fragrance, a “picnic at home” basket may include nibbles and drinks that families can enjoy through a “picnic” in their yards, terraces, balconies and gardens, or even a makeshift picnic area within their homes.

What We Think

As the lockdown continues, consumers are looking to make time spent with family and loved ones special and meaningful. Retailers should look to offer positivity and respite from being locked in by promoting products that will help shoppers and their families take part in an experience to remember.