DIpil Das
What’s the Story?
This report presents the results of Coresight Research’s latest weekly survey of US consumers, undertaken on January 18. The report includes analysis of new questions on shopper behaviors and the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. We explore the trends we are seeing from week to week, following previous surveys this year on January 11, 2021 and January 4, 2021, and our surveys in 2020: December 28, December 21, December 15, December 8, December 1, November 24, November 17, November 10, November 3, October 27, October 20, October 13, October 6, September 29, September 22, September 15, September 9, September 2, August 26, August 19, August 12, August 5, July 29, July 22, July 15, July 8, July 1, June 24,June 17, June 10, June 3, May 27, May 20, May 13, May 6, April 29, April 22, April 15, April 8, April 1, March 25 and March 17–18.What Shoppers Are Buying and Which Retailers They Are Buying From
For 2021, Coresight Research has introduced new questions on what shoppers are buying and what retailers they are buying from. Week by week, we will track:- What product categories they had purchased in-store in the past two weeks.
- What product categories they had purchased online in the past two weeks.
- Which retailers they had bought any food products from in the past two weeks.
- Which retailers they had bought any nonfood products from in the past two weeks.
- Consumers appeared to shift some grocery purchases from online to offline this week. The proportion of consumers that had recently bought food and beverages in-store reached a record-high of 77.6%, while online demand fell from 27.9% last week to 23.9%. As a result, the ratio of in-store to online shoppers increased to the highest level ever recorded in our US consumer surveys.
- Other essential items such as health, household and personal care products all saw an uptick in in-store purchases. Pet products witnessed the largest week-over-week increase, of almost nine percentage points.
- In-store purchases of clothing and footwear rebounded by six percentage points this week, to 23.4%—veryclose to the 23.9% that had bought apparel online. This is the first time the ratio of in-store to online for clothing and footwear has reached 1.0, reflecting consumers’ return to stores to buy apparel.
- We have seen a near-consistent downward trend in purchases for household appliances, both in-store and online, suggesting a weakness in post-holiday demand.
Figure 1. All Respondents: What They Have Bought In-Store and Online in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122195" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Retailers: Where Consumers Shopped Since December 21, we have asked consumers which retailers they bought from in the two-week period preceding the survey, for both food and nonfood products. The proportions of consumers shopping for nonfood products slightly recovered from the substantial declines last week, but still remained below the levels we saw in late December when purchases were supported by holiday season shopping. For food purchases:
- Market leader Walmart gained shoppers according to our data—some 47.5% had shopped at Walmart this week, seven percentage points higher than the proportion last week and the highest level we have seen for this question. We also saw an increase in consumers reporting that they had bought food from Costco, with a week-over-week increase of five percentage points, putting it ahead of Amazon and Target this week.
- The proportions of consumers that had bought food from other retailers in the latest two-week period remained relatively stable compared to last week for other retailers.
- After significant declines last week, Amazon and Walmart both saw shopper numbers jump back a little, although this was still much lower than the proportions from two weeks ago.
- The proportion that had bought nonfood products from Target dropped to the lowest level this week at 21.9%, which continued to close the gap between dollar store retailers.
- Department store retailers have seen consistent declining trends over the past few weeks. The proportion of respondents that shopped at Kohl’s this week decreased by almost seven percentage points compared to our survey on December 21. Only 3.4% had bought from Macy’s, down from 9.1% on December 21.
Figure 2. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products From and Which Retailers They Have Bought Nonfood Products From in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122196" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US Internet users aged 18+
*Kroger banners include City Market, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, King Soopers, Kroger, Ralphs and Smith’s Food & Drug
**Ahold Delhaize banners include Food Lion, Giant, Hannaford and Stop & Shop
***TJX banners include HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marshalls, Sierra and T.J. Maxx
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What Shoppers Are Doing and Where They Are Going
Visits to Food Service Locations Remain Low Complementing our questions about purchases in the past two weeks, each week, we ask consumers what activities they have done in the past two weeks. This week, the proportion of respondents slightly increased for half of the options we provided for recent activities, although most of the week-over-week changes were within the margin of error.- The proportion of consumers that visited an open-air shopping center increased a little to 18.1% after decreasing in the past few weeks. However, visits to an enclosed shopping center slide to the lowest level we have seen for this activity since August 2020—only 10.6% of respondents reported they had visited this type of location in the past two weeks.
- The proportion of consumers that reported going to food service locations, including restaurants and coffee shops, broadly leveled off this week, while the proportion that had gone to a bar bounced back by five percentage points week over week.
Figure 3. All Respondents: What Activities They Have Done in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122197" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption] More Consumers Expect To Get a Haircut in the Next Two Weeks Each week, we also ask consumers what activities they expect to do in the next two weeks, with a set of options comparable to those for the last two weeks. This week, consumer expectations for half of the activities remained relatively stable.
- We saw more consumers report that they expect to get a haircut, grooming or beauty service in the next two weeks: some 23.4% plan to do such activity—up five percentage points from 18.0% last week and the highest level we have seen since October 2020.
- Expectations to go to a restaurant and a coffee shop both fell slightly week over week, as food service locations remained the most-avoided public place, which we discuss in the next section of the report.
- Some 14.7% of respondents plan to visit an open-air shopping center in the next two weeks, while only 8.7% expect to go to an enclosed shopping center—the lowest level we have seen in the past few months.
Figure 4. All Respondents: What Activities They Expect To Do in the Next Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122198" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Eight in 10 Are Currently Avoiding Public Places In this week’s survey, the avoidance rate of any type of public area stood at 80.7%, versus 82.7% last week and 84.1% two weeks ago. Avoidance rates were down slightly week over week in half of the 12 options provided.
- The proportion of respondents that are currently avoiding shopping centers/malls came in at 63.9%, down five percentage points from the peak of 69.0% we saw two weeks ago.
- Avoidance of shops in general stood at 49.4%, compared to 47.8% last week and the record-high level of 56.3% two weeks ago.
- Food service locations were the most-avoided type of public place, with 64.6% of respondents currently avoiding such locations.
- Grooming services saw the largest week-over-week decline in avoidance of 10 percentage points, aligned with our finding in last week’s survey that more consumers expect to get a haircut or use a grooming service in the next two weeks.
Figure 5. All Respondents: Public Places That Respondents Are Currently Avoiding (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122199" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
Reviewing Trend Data in Current Purchasing Behavior
What Consumers Are Currently Buying More Of and Less Of The proportion of consumers that are buying more of any product broadly leveled off at 45% this week, while the proportion buying less of any product due to the crisis went down week over week. Some 40.5% are currently buying less of any product, versus 43.3% last week and 49.7% two weeks ago.- Buying more in any category and buying less in any category were not mutually exclusive options, so respondents could answer yes to both.
- The ratio for clothing and footwear went down again to 5.3, from 6.5 last week and 10.9 two weeks ago. During the early days of the holiday season, this ratio was around 2.0.
- The ratio for beauty came in at 5.2, versus 4.6 last week.
- The ratio for electronics dropped to 1.8, from 2.0 last week and 2.6 two weeks ago.
- The ratio for the home category slid to 1.8, from 3.4 last week.
Figure 6. All Respondents: What They Are Currently Buying More/Less Of Due to the Coronavirus Outbreak (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122200" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Two-Thirds Are Switching Spending Online The proportion of consumers buying more online than they used to stood at 65.8% this week, versus 63.9% last week. Compared to the average of roughly 70% of consumers buying more online than pre-crisis in the period from April to December 2020, e-commerce levels over the past two weeks indicate a potential slowdown in online shopping.
Figure 7. All Respondents: Whether They Are Currently Buying More Online than They Used To (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122201" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption] What Consumers Are Currently Buying More Of Online Looking at specific categories, five of the 13 options we provided saw week-over-week increases in consumers buying more online than pre-crisis, although almost all of the changes were within the margin of error.
- Clothing and footwear remained the number-one products that consumers are buying more online than pre-crisis, with one-third this week saying that they are buying more online,despite fewer consumers saying that they had bought apparel online in the latest two-week period, as discussed earlier.
- Personal care products saw the largest week-over-week uptick, of almost five percentage points, while we saw a gradual downward trend in online purchases for household products.
- Online purchases for other discretionary products, including beauty and home broadly leveled off week over week.
Figure 8. All Respondents: Categories That They Are Currently Purchasing Online More than They Used To (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_122202" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What We Think
This week, we saw early signs of consumers returning to in-store shopping. The number of newly reported Covid-19 cases across the US has been edging downward in the past few weeks. The US reported more than 178,000 new cases on January 20, down from 230,166 week over week. However, the slow rollout of vaccines nationwide and the new Covid-19 strain could drive cases to surge again, possibly prompting new lockdowns and restrictions. Our recurring weekly questions indicated the following:- Apparel: We have seen declines in discretionary purchases following the holiday season, with apparel taking the hardest hit. This week, apparel purchases slightly improved, driven by more in-store purchases. The proportion of consumers that had bought apparel and footwear in-store rebounded by six percentage points to 23.4%, and for the first time, reaching almost the same level as those that had bought apparel online in the past two weeks of 23.9%.
- Online Grocery: This week, levels of online grocery shopping fell to the lowest level we have seen in our surveys so far—some 23.9% had bought food online in the past two weeks, compared to the consistent proportion of roughly 30% we saw in previous weeks. On the other hand, the proportion that shopped in-store for groceries reached a record-high this week. We will continue to monitor these data points in the upcoming weeks to see if there is a sustained slowdown in grocery e-commerce.
- E-Commerce: Despite the high avoidance rate in shopping centers and shops in general, fewer consumers have been shopping more online than they used to in recent weeks, compared to the levels we saw in 2020. Some 65.8% are buying more online than pre-crisis, versus an average of roughly 70% in the period from April to December 2020.