DIpil Das
What’s the Story?
This report presents the results of Coresight Research’s latest weekly survey of US consumers, undertaken on March 15. The report includes analysis of questions on shopper behaviors and the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. We explore the trends we are seeing from week to week, following previous weekly surveys.What Shoppers Are Buying and Which Retailers They Are Buying From
In-Store Apparel Purchases Pick Up This week, we saw renewed consumer interest in in-store shopping for clothing and footwear, with a slightly higher proportion reporting that they bought apparel in-store compared to online in the two weeks prior to our survey. This week, in-store purchase levels exceeded the average level we saw during the 2020 holiday season from our November 24 to December 28 surveys. For the second time this year, our survey this week registered a higher proportion of consumers buying clothing and footwear in a store, at 23.7%, compared to online purchases at 23.2%—although the margin is very narrow. In addition, the in-store metrics in this week’s survey exceeded the average in-store apparel purchase level of 21.8% during the 2020 holiday season. On the contrary, the proportion of consumers that had bought apparel online this week declined by eight percentage points compared to the holiday season average of 31.1%. In a separate survey question, we witnessed a gradual rebound in overall apparel purchases, discussed in our later section on what consumers are buying more of and less of due to the coronavirus. In the coming weeks, we may continue to see an increase in in-store apparel purchases, supported by ongoing vaccine rollout and the distribution of a third round of stimulus checks, which began on March 17. However, our previous surveys have found that consumers primarily report spending stimulus payments on bills and essentials.Figure 1. Proportion of Respondents That Have Bought Clothing and Footwear In-Store and Online in the Past Two Weeks [caption id="attachment_124789" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption] What Consumers Bought In-Store and Online This week, key findings in specific categories include the following:
- In-store purchases for food and beverage dropped by five percentage points week over week and reached the lowest level we have seen this year, at 65.1%. The lost share did not appear to shift to online—online shopping for food or beverages also fell slightly, to 23.4%.
- The proportion of consumers buying personal care products online jumped by seven percentage points, to 24.2%—the highest level this year.
- The proportion of consumers buying home-improvement products in a store and online both increased to their highest levels so far this year. In-store purchases saw a surge of five percentage points week over week. The home-improvement category has sustained a strong salestrend throughout the pandemic.
Figure 2. All Respondents: What They Have Bought In-Store and Online in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_124790" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Which Retailers Consumers Purchased Food and Nonfood Products From Each week, we ask consumers which retailers they bought from in the two-week period preceding the survey, for both food and nonfood products. For food purchases:
- The proportion of consumers that reported shopping at Walmart has fluctuated in recent weeks. This week, the metric went down by almost seven percentage points to 47.1%.
- We saw a big leap in the proportion of consumers that had bought food from Amazon this week, up 11 percentage points from last week to 31.3%. This the highest level we have recorded and makes Amazon the second most-shopped retailer for food in our survey, indicating that Amazon’s ongoing investment in grocery may be paying off.
- Amazon also saw an increase in the proportion of consumers buying nonfood products from the retailer. At five percentage points week over week, the rise takes Amazon to the highest level we have seen in our survey since January 11.
- Since January 11, we have seen improvements in nonfood purchases for almost all the retailers we include, although some increases are minor. The proportion of consumers purchasing nonfood products from department stores remains low so far this year.
Figure 3. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products From and Which Retailers They Have Bought Nonfood Products From in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_124791" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US Internet users aged 18+
*Kroger banners include City Market, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, King Soopers, Kroger, Ralphs and Smith’s Food & Drug
**Ahold Delhaize banners include Food Lion, Giant, Hannaford and Stop & Shop
***TJX banners include HomeGoods, HomeSense, Marshalls, Sierra and T.J. Maxx
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
Reviewing Trend Data in Current Purchasing Behavior
What Consumers Are Currently Buying More Of and Less Of The proportion of consumers buying more of any product due to the coronavirus increased by six percentage points to 67.9% this week—the highest proportion we have seen this year. This level is also roughly the same as during the holiday season last year. The proportion that are buying less of any products than pre-crisis broadly leveled off at 47.9%.- Buying more in any category and buying less in any category were not mutually exclusive options, so respondents could answer yes to both.
- The ratio for clothing and footwear decreased to 1.8 this week, from 2.4 last week and 3.0 two weeks ago. This week’s ratio hit the historic low level we saw during the holiday season last year.
- The ratio of buying less to more for toys and games fell to a low at 0.4 this week, from 1.5 last week and 0.6 two weeks ago.
- The ratio for electronics and home remained stable week over week, at 1.8 and 1.9, respectively.
Figure 4. All Respondents: What They Are Currently Buying More/Less Of Due to the Coronavirus Outbreak (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_124792" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What Shoppers Are Doing and Where They Are Going
Increased Travel Optimism Among Consumers Each week, we ask consumers what activities they have done in the past two weeks. This week, the proportion of respondents fell for eight of the 12 activities we asked about, although all changes were within the margin of error.- Visits to food-service locations remained at a relatively high level compared to last month. This week, the proportion of consumers that reported dining in a restaurant stood at one-third, versus 35.1% last week. The proportion that had gone to a coffee shop broadly leveled off, at one-fifth, compared to the average level of 15% in February. Both metrics reflect a gradual return to food-service locations—this trend should continue, driven by the ongoing rollout of vaccinations and warmer weather.
- Consumers appear to be increasingly comfortable about traveling in the coming weeks and months. The proportion of consumers that reported arranging a trip increased for the fifth straight week, from 6.9% in the first week of February to 17.5% this week, representing a jump of 11 percentage points. This level is also the highest we have seen since we started asking this question in June 2020.
- The proportion of consumers that reported visiting leisure or cultural attractions reached a high this week, at 10.3%, also suggesting that more consumers are returning to regular activities.
Figure 5. All Respondents: What Activities They Have Done in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_124793" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Declining Trend in Avoidance of Any Public Place This week, the avoidance rate of any type of public area came in at 76.8%, continuing a downward trend in avoidance. Compared to the peak of 86.3% one month ago, the avoidance of any public area has declined by almost 10 percentage points. For eight of the 13 location options provided, rates of avoidance decreased this week, although some changes were within the margin of error. If we look at the long-term trend from three months ago, all of the options we ask respondents about saw declines in avoidance rate.
- Food-service locations are the most-avoided public places this week, with half of consumers currently avoiding such places. However, this is much lower than the average level of 56.9% in February and two-thirds in January.
- Some 49.8% are avoiding shopping centers/malls, down seven percentage points from the average level in February and a decrease of 17 percentage points from January. The proportion of consumers that are avoiding shops in general returned to the level we saw on February 22, at 36.8%. Both metrics are encouraging signs for retailers.
- Although we have seen an upward trend in the proportion of consumers that report arranging trips in recent weeks, as discussed above, avoidance of international travel still stood at 47.6%, implying that consumers may have short-term preferences for domestic travel.
- Avoidance of medical centers/hospitals saw the largest week-over-week decline, of seven percentage points, to a low of 22.7% this week.
Figure 6. All Respondents: Public Places That Respondents Are Currently Avoiding (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_124794" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What We Think
Looking at long-term trends, numerous survey metrics indicate that consumers are gradually returning or planning to return to regular activities, such as dining out, traveling and visiting social/cultural attractions. As the vaccination rollout speeds up, and the weather gets warmer, we expect to see more consumers return to more normal ways of living and spending. According to Bloomberg, as of March 18, 73.7 million Americans have received at least one vaccine dose, equating to roughly a quarter of the US adult population. We saw an improvement in some discretionary purchases this week, particularly in apparel and toys/games. The US government started distributing the third round of stimulus checks of up to $1,400 per person on March 17. Although our February 8 survey indicates that consumers plan to spend their third stimulus payments on bills and essentials, as they reported doing with the previous rounds of stimulus, January’s solid retail sales suggest that stimulus checks discretionary spending nevertheless. Over the next few weeks, we may see an increases in discretionary purchases, driven by the boost in spending power. Our recurring weekly questions indicated the following:- Avoidance of Public Places:The proportion of consumers avoiding public places dropped to 76.8 % this week. Half of respondents said that they are avoiding food-service locations and shopping centers/mall. However, the avoidance rates for these two places have significantly declined from the level in January and February. The proportion of consumers that are avoiding shops in general also returned to low we saw on February 22, at 36.8%—a positive sign for retailers.
- Apparel: This week, we saw an increase in clothing and footwear purchases—the ratio of buying less to buying more than pre-crisis in the category reached the level we saw during the 2020 holiday season, coming in at 1.8. In terms of channel, more consumers reported purchasing apparel in-store than the proportion that had done so online, although the margin was very narrow.
- Grocery: Purchases for grocery declined this week, both in-store and online. The proportion of consumers that reported buying food and beverages reached a historic low at 65.1%, and online shopping for food and beverages also fell slightly.