DIpil Das
What’s the Story?
We present findings from our latest weekly survey of US consumers, undertaken on April 19, 2021. This report includes analysis of the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on shopper behaviors. We explore the trends we are seeing from week to week. Read our previous US Consumer Tracker reports.What Consumers Are Buying
- Essentials remain the most common categories in which consumers report purchasing more, but figures have leveled off in recent weeks.
- The proportion of consumers that reported purchasing clothing and footwear more than pre-pandemic climbed again this week, and now sits at a rate more than double its value four weeks earlier. This category is likely thriving as more consumers receive vaccinations and resume normal work and social lives.
Figure 1a. All Respondents: What They Are Currently Buying More/Less Of Than Before the Coronavirus Outbreak (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126339" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- Consumers continue to report purchasing more furniture, furnishings and home-improvement products: The proportion of consumers buying more of these products rose to 16.0% this week, up from 9.3% less than a month earlier.
- Tracking with the growth of clothing and apparel, the beauty category has also seen growth in shoppers purchasing more: This week marked the second consecutive period in which the proportion of consumers purchasing more beauty products rose and the proportion of consumers purchasing less fell.
- After a large jump last week, the proportion of consumers purchasing more electronics and appliances increased slightly this week, indicating that last week’s spike was not an outlier.
Figure 1b. All Respondents: What They Are Currently Buying More/Less Of Than Before the Coronavirus Outbreak (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126340" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption] Ratio of buying less to more: The ratio of the proportion of respondents buying less to the proportion buying more fell in six of the 14 categories.
- The ratio of buying less to more for clothing and footwear dropped to 1.2, another historic low after last week’s record 1.4 value.
- The beauty category saw the ratio of less to more fall to 1.0 for the first time ever, with this category appearing to track consumers’ return to more social behaviors.
- Other discretionary categories saw ratios remain largely steady this week.
Figure 2. All Respondents: Selected Ratios of What They Are Currently Buying Less to Buying More Of Than Before the Coronavirus Outbreak (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126341" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- Of the 17 categories we surveyed consumers about, 12 experienced week-over-week increases in consumers’ in-store purchasing behaviors this week, although these changes were all within the margin of error.
- In-store purchases of essentials remained steady this week, with no essential category experiencing a change in in-store purchases outside of the margin of error.
- The proportion of consumers that reported buying clothing and footwear in a store reached an all-time high this week, at 29.0%, exceeding last week’s previous record of 25.9%. Online sales did not appear to suffer as a result, as 28.4% of consumers still reported making purchases in the category online, up from 26.7% the week prior.
- Home-improvement and garden products continued an upward trend in in-store purchases, while online purchases have also climbed in recent weeks.
- The beauty category continues to see steady growth, with increases in both online and in-store purchases for the second consecutive week.
Figure 3a. All Respondents: What They Have Bought In-Store and Online in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126365" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- Sales of bags and luggage both online and in-store have crept upward in recent weeks, as consumers begin to think more seriously about traveling. The proportion of consumers purchasing these products in-store and online stood at 5.2% and 6.5%, respectively, in the latest survey, up from just 2.8% and 2.6% four weeks prior.
- No category saw a substantial decline in in-store purchases this week, an indication that a sustained return to stores may have begun.
Figure 3b. All Respondents: What They Have Bought In-Store and Online in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126343" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
Which Retailers Consumers Are Buying From
- Six of the 12 retailers saw week-over-week declines for food purchases.
- Only Costco’s decline was outside the margin of error. The proportion of consumers shopping at the warehouse club fell by 6.5 percentage points this week, falling behind the strong values seen in early April.
- The proportion of consumers purchasing food from Kroger remained steady in the latest survey, representing its third consecutive period of very strong performance.
Figure 4. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products From in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126344" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
*Kroger banners include City Market, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, King Soopers, Kroger, Ralphs and Smith’s Food & Drug
**Ahold Delhaize banners include Food Lion, Giant, Hannaford and Stop & Shop
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- The gap between Walmart and Target closed slightly again this week but remains over 10 percentage points.
- For many survey iterations, the proportion of consumers making purchases at Dollar Tree/Family Dollar and Dollar General tracked very closely. In recent weeks, however, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar has broken away from Dollar General.
Figure 5. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Nonfood Products From in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126345" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Respondents could select multiple options Base: US respondents aged 18+
*TJX banners include HomeGoods, Homesense, Marshalls, Sierra and T.J. Maxx
Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What Consumers Are Doing and Where They Are Going
- Avoidance of any public place bounced back somewhat this week to 75.1% after last week’s major decline. Avoidance increased in eight of the 12 options we provided, but this was largely as a result of last week’s near-uniform strong decrease in avoidance.
- International travel again saw the highest avoidance rate, of 49.4%.
- Avoidance of shopping locations rose this week, but only slightly, even against demanding comparatives from the previous survey, when avoidance of such places set record lows. Avoidance of shops in general rose 2.5 percentage points to 30.7%, while avoidance of shopping centers rose just 0.6 percentage points to 45.9%.
- Avoidance of gyms and community centers—crowded indoor areas that have both seen consumers reluctant to return—both saw avoidance drop slightly for the second consecutive week.
Figure 6. All Respondents: Public Places That Respondents Are Currently Avoiding (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126346" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- The proportion of respondents decreased for seven of the 12 activities covered, although most changes were within the margin of error.
- The proportion of consumers going to both enclosed and open-air shopping centers fell very slightly this week, in line with trends in avoidance (see previous slide) but remained at high levels of around one-quarter of respondents.
- The proportion of consumers that reported going to a bar in the past two weeks rose to 13.4% (following last week’s dip), nearly double its value four weeks prior.
Figure 7. All Respondents: What Activities They Have Done in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126366" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
How Behaviors Are Shifting Across Income Brackets
- As recently as late March, the mix of consumers visiting a restaurant was spread largely evenly across income brackets. Since then, the proportion of high-income consumers planning trips has risen by more than 20 percentage points, while the proportions of middle- and low-income consumers have remained largely steady.
- Similarly, the proportions of consumers planning a trip were previously even across high- and low-income consumers, but in the past month have shifted to be concentrated heavily among high-income consumers, who are now more than twice as likely as their low-income counterparts to be planning a trip.
Figure 8a. All Respondents: Proportion Reporting Visiting a Restaurant in the Past Two Weeks, by Income (% of Respondents)
Figure 8b. All Respondents: Proportion Reporting Planning a Trip in the Past Two Weeks, by Income (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126349" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
- The income split seen in the two areas of service spending (food service and travel, highlighted on the previous slide) does not appear in consumers’ propensity to visit shops.
- Between March 22 and April 19, the proportion of consumers visiting both enclosed and open-air shopping malls climbed for all income brackets somewhat evenly.
Figure 9a. All Respondents: Proportion Reporting Visiting an Enclosed Shopping Center in the Past Two Weeks, by Income (% of Respondents)
Figure 9b. All Respondents: Proportion Reporting Visiting an Open-Air Shopping Center in the Past Two Weeks, by Income (% of Respondents) [caption id="attachment_126368" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Base: US respondents aged 18+ Source: Coresight Research [/caption]
What We Think
Covid-19 cases finally leveled off this week, after climbing for each of the previous several weeks in the US, despite speedy vaccinations. While the paused rollout of Johnson & Johnson vaccines will slightly hamper the inoculation campaign, the country has continued to administer more than 3 million doses per day for each of the last two weeks. Consumers are now keenly aware of the US’s steady progress toward herd immunity and are likely to continue to adjust their spending behaviors accordingly. While the latest survey did see a slight uptick in some pandemic-driven behaviors—avoidance of public places/fewer visits to restaurants—it did not buck the overall trend of consumers returning to more activities outside the home. Consumers continued to purchase products in-store at higher rates, and many, particularly high-income consumers, appeared increasingly willing to spend on services, particularly on restaurants, bars and travel. While rising consumer confidence is good news for everyone, it is also possible this burgeoning increase in service spending could have a detrimental impact on retail spending, which has been strong through the pandemic as consumers had limited other spending options. Our weekly questions indicated the following:- Furniture, furnishings and home improvement—The proportion of consumers purchasing home products rose for the second consecutive week, jumping to a value more than seven percentage points higher than a month ago. This category performed well at the start of the pandemic, as consumers stuck at home embarked on home-improvement projects. Now, it is more likely that the plethora of consumers who purchased new homes over the pandemic are purchasing new products for their new houses, keeping sales in the category high.
- In-store shopping—Although this week did not see the decline in avoidance that emerged in last week’s survey, consumers did continue to avoid shops at low rates. In addition, no category saw the proportion of consumers buying products in-store drop by an amount outside the margin of error. As vaccinations continue, consumers should return to stores at even higher rates. So far, this return to physical shopping has not come at the expense of online sales.