albert Chan
US Apparel and Beauty Spending Tracker: March 2021
The Coresight Research US Apparel and Beauty Spending Tracker provides a monthly update on the trajectory of consumer spending on beauty, clothing and footwear. The data presented in this report refer to consumer spending through any channels and so differ from retail sales data, which include product category sales by type of retailer. The data are sourced from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Clothing and Footwear Spending Update
Consumer spending on clothing and footwear saw a strong recovery in March 2021, with a year-over-year increase of 55.8%, compared to a decline of 3.8% in February 2021. The year-over-year surge in March 2021 reflects the steep decline in consumer spending in March 2020 and may be driven by the distribution of economic impact payments (stimulus checks) associated with the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (enacted on March 11, 2021).
March, April and May 2021 annualize the steep, pandemic-driven declines of 2020. Against the weak comparatives charted below, we estimate clothing and footwear spending to have increased by 82.8% year over year in April, and we estimate a 34.0% jump in May. These estimates are based on our central assumption that spending in these months will be 5.0% below the comparable months in 2019, before the pandemic.
The two-year percentage change was 4.1% in January 2021, (2.2)% in February 2021 and a very strong 12.3% in March 2021—therefore, we believe our core (5.0)% two-year growth assumption is conservative.Our weekly US consumer surveys track purchasing behaviors each week. In recent weeks, our findings have shown a gradual increase in the proportion of respondents buying clothing or footwear, whether in-store or online—see our US Consumer Tracker Databank.
Figure 1. US Consumer Spending on Clothing and Footwear (YoY % Change) [caption id="attachment_126844" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Note: Expenditure data are seasonally adjusted at annual rates Source: BEA/Coresight Research [/caption]
Clothing and Footwear Spending by Subcategory
We track subcategories of clothing and footwear, including children’s and infants' clothing, footwear, men's and boys' clothing, and women's and girls' clothing.
Spending on clothing overall saw a year-over-year increase of 54.3% in March 2021, with a 57.3% increase in women's and girls' clothing spending, a 53.4% increase in men's and boys' clothing specifically, and a 33.1% increase in children’s and infants' clothing.
Figure 2 shows spending on clothing by category type. Category sales growth followed the same growth pattern as clothing overall, with sequential declines in growth from October to December 2020, followed by a revival in January 2021, a fallback in February 2021 and a surge in March 2021.
Figure 2. US Consumer Spending on Clothing, by Category (YoY% Change) [wpdatatable id=907] Source: BEA/Coresight Research
Spending on footwear increased by 62.7% year over year in March 2021, versus a 4.7% decline in February 2021.
Figure 3. US Consumer Spending on Footwear (YoY % Change) [wpdatatable id=908] Source: BEA/Coresight Research
Beauty Spending Update
For our tracker, we include bath products, cosmetics, nail preparations and implements, and perfumes within the beauty category, following the US BEA definition.
Growth in consumer spending on beauty increased to 23.5% year over year in March 2021, compared to an increase of 10.2% in February 2021. Spending on beauty recovered quickly from June 2020 onward and has seen positive year-over-year growth since July 2020. Although the growth rate moderated in some months, the growth momentum in the beauty category continues.
On a two-year basis, category spending growth averaged 16.7% across the January–March 2021 period and stood at 20.9% in March 2021. Should that 16.7% average continue, we would see a 39.4% year-over-year jump in beauty spending in April and a 25.1% year-over-year increase in May.
Figure 4. US Consumer Spending on Selected Beauty Categories (YoY % Change) [caption id="attachment_126845" align="aligncenter" width="725"]
Beauty is defined as bath products, cosmetics, nail preparations and implements, and perfume Source: BEA/Coresight Research [/caption]