US GDP Growth Slows in the Third Quarter   On October 30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published its advance estimate of GDP growth, estimating the US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9% in the third quarter of 2019, slowing slightly from 2.0% in the second quarter. GDP growth in the third quarter was driven by personal consumption expenditures, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending and exports. These were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment and increased imports. [caption id="attachment_99271" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis[/caption]   US Industrial Production Declines During the Third Quarter US industrial production rebounded 1.2% in the third quarter, following contractions of 1.9% and 2.1% in the first and second quarters, respectively. Consumer goods output increased 2.1% in the third quarter, within which durable goods rose 4.8%. Automotive and chemical products output increased 8.3% and 9.2%, respectively, while food and tobacco were down 4.9%. [caption id="attachment_99273" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: US Federal Reserve[/caption]   Personal Consumption Expenditure Decelerates During the Third Quarter US real personal consumption expenditures (PCE, or consumer spending) grew 2.9% during the third quarter, slower than the 4.7% recorded in the second quarter. In September, real personal disposable income (PDI; income after paying tax and other deductions) increased 0.3%, while real PCE increased 0.2%. The increase in real PDI in September can be attributed to increases in personal interest income, farm proprietors' income, and government social benefits to individuals. The increase in real PCE in September was a result of an increase of $18.4 billion in spending on goods and a $6.5 billion increase in spending on services. [caption id="attachment_99274" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis[/caption]   China’s GDP Growth Slows   China’s economy grew 6.0% year over year in the third quarter, the slowest rate since records began 27 years ago, but within the Chinese government’s target range of 6.0-6.5% for the year. The data reflects slowing demand at home and abroad as trade tensions with the US continue. The more recent easing of the trade tensions and increased chances of a deal could support the economy in the current quarter. [caption id="attachment_99275" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China[/caption]   China’s Industrial Production Continues to Show Rising Momentum In September, China’s industrial production was up 5.8% year over year in real terms, above the 4.4% growth rate in August and the 4.8% rate in July. Industrial production of mining and quarrying increased 8.1% year over year, 4.4 percentage points higher than August. Manufacturing increased 5.6%, and production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water were up 5.9%. [caption id="attachment_99276" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China[/caption]   China Real-Terms per Capita Expenditure Growth Shows Slight Rebound Accumulated per capita expenditure in real terms increased 5.7% year over year in China in the third quarter, faster than the 5.2% growth registered in the second quarter. Retail sales grew 7.8% year over year in September, following gains of 7.5% and 7.6% in July and August, respectively. [caption id="attachment_99277" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China[/caption]