Coresight Research’s measure of core retail sales is the unadjusted year-over-year change, excluding gasoline and automobiles. This metric stood at 4.4% in September, versus 4.7% in August. September’s solid growth supports our estimate of around 4% growth for the holiday peak.

[caption id="attachment_98203" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Data is not seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau/Coresight Research[/caption]  

Retail Sales Decline Month Over Month

The Census Bureau’s own core metric is seasonally adjusted retail sales including automobiles and gasoline. Sales by this measure grew 4.0% year over year in September, slightly slower than the 4.6% growth rate seen in August.

On a month-over-month basis and seasonally adjusted, retail sales declined 0.3% in September.

[caption id="attachment_98204" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Data is seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau[/caption]  

Retail Sales Growth by Sector

Several sectors saw sequentially slower growth in September, including food retailers and sporting goods stores.

After posting growth in August, sales fell in September in the clothing and general merchandise stores segments. Sales at department stores (a sub-set of general-merchandise stores) worsened: a decline of 7.3% in September compared to a 4.6% fall in August.

The furniture and home-furnishings, building materials (i.e., home improvement), and health and personal care sectors witnessed faster growth in September than in August.

Nonstore retailers continued to post double-digit growth, of 15.6% versus 13.8% in August.

[caption id="attachment_98205" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Data is not seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau/Coresight Research[/caption]