The Coresight Research US Retail Traffic and In-Store Metrics series reviews year-over-year changes in selected store-based metrics as reported by RetailNext. In this month’s report, we review store traffic changes through October, when many states reported a spike in Covid-19 cases. RetailNext’s coverage does not include food retailers but does include some other retail sectors deemed essential; the exclusion of food retail means that the figures cited below almost certainly overstate recent declines in total retail traffic.

• Total US nonfood traffic declined by 34.5% year over year in October, versus September’s 34.1% decline. The decline is in line with Coresight Research’s expectationsfor total US nonfood retail traffic to be down by around 30–35% during the holiday season (October to December).
• The conversion rate (sales transactions as a percentage of traffic) grew by 4.5 percentage points in October, versus September’s 2.7-percentage-point growth.
• In October, ATV (sales divided by transactions) decreased by 1.4%, versus September’s 5.2% growth.
• Shopper yield (sales divided by traffic) grew 24.6% in October, versus September’s 20.0% increase.
• RetailNext did not publish data for transaction volume and product return rates.

[caption id="attachment_119107" align="aligncenter" width="700"] ATV=average transaction value; % Return=percentage of goods returned to stores
Source: RetailNext [/caption]   Weekly Shopper Traffic Trends Weekly data for October tracks the progress of store reopenings over four weeks (October 4–October 31, 2020):

• Traffic declined by 33.1% in the first week, an improvement from the final week of September, which saw traffic decline by 34.0%. Traffic declines accelerated slightly to 34.4% in the second week of October; this week also witnessed consumers starting their holiday shopping, with Amazon Prime Day on October 13–14 and other retailers offering promotions to compete against the online giant—resulting in a traffic decline of only 27.6% on these two days.
• Declines eased slightly to 33.8% in the third week of October before accelerating to 36.7% in the fourth week, similar to early September traffic trends, as several states saw a spike in Covid-19 cases.

Traffic by Retailer Vertical While nonessential retailers were severely impacted in March and April by temporary store closures due to Covid-19 lockdowns, traffic improved between May and September, with most states authorizing retailers to reopen physical stores in stages. In October, traffic trends slowed slightly: Nonessential retailers experienced an aggregate 34.5% decline in shopper traffic versus September’s 34.1% decline. Performances varied across industry verticals in October:

• The jewelry sector experienced the greatest traffic decline at 34.3%, followed by the apparel sector, which saw a 33.9% decrease in traffic.
• The footwear sector posted the lowest decline in traffic, at 26.8%.
• The home sector reported a traffic decline of 27.9%.

Regional Traffic Trends October witnessed spikes in Covid-19 cases in several regions: The Midwest and the South reported their highest single-day records of cases, which continued to increase. Selected states in the Northeastern region, such as New Jersey, increased their restrictions, and stores and restaurants started closing. Some states in the Western region, such as California and Colorado, continued to witness wildfires and heatwaves, causing many people to stay indoors due to poor air quality. Retail traffic in October varied across regions:

• The Northeast saw the greatest traffic decline of 38.8%, as this region had tighter restrictions related to the pandemic. October started out strong, with a traffic decline of only 35.7%, but in the second to fourth weeks, traffic declines in the region were at least six percentage points worse than the national average.
• The Southposted the lowest decline in traffic, at 31.5%, mainly driven by better traffic trends in Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee. This region outperformed other regions every week in October, except the third.
• The West was the second-best-performing region, posting a traffic decline of 32.3%. Many states in the region—such as California, Oregon and Washington—witnessed slight improvements in traffic versus September. Although California witnessed a spike in Covid-19 cases in the summer, the state managed to reopen key parts of the economy without seeing a rise in cases, probably contributing to the Western region’s slightly better performance in October compared to the Northeast and the Midwest regions.
• The Midwest posted a traffic decline of 32.8%. This region saw the highest number of Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in October. As cases rise further, this negative trend is projected to continue in the upcoming months.

Traffic by Retailer Location Type In October, mall traffic was comparatively consistent across different location types. Non-enclosed storefront locations continued to perform better than traditional enclosed shopping centers.

• Traffic by mall location type declined between 20% and 50%, with strip malls outperforming other location types by more than 13 percentage points, with a decline of only 21.7%; these benefitted from being open-air centers and the presence of nondiscretionary retailers such as food retailers.
• Luxury, outlet, lifestyle center, street-front and traditional mall locations witnessed traffic declines of between 35% and 39%.
• Other retail locations including airports, casinos and hotels were hit the hardest, with traffic declines of 49.5%, owing to travel restrictions as well as consumer preference to avoid travel.