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Data in this report is not seasonally adjusted
Source: ONS/Coresight Research [/caption]
Retail Sales Growth by Sector
Small retailers once again drove total sales growth in October: The ONS reported a 4.6% rise for small retailers versus a 2.6% increase for large retailers. Large retailers form the bulk of the sector (about three-quarters of total sales) and account for a very high share of sales in several major sectors, such as apparel. Figures for the large-retailer segment are more reflective of the most-watched companies.
Total growth was in line with our holiday outlook, which we
revised down to 3.0% for November and December, in light of uncertainty due to a further extension to the UK’s departure from the EU.
In October, grocery sales growth slowed to 2.3% from 3.2% in September, despite sector inflation being unchanged.
The ONS reported 3.2% growth in the clothing specialist sector, driven solely by an eyebrow-raising 26.4% increase in reported growth at small retailers. The ONS has for some time reported volatile data for a number of fragmented sectors, which has sporadically included small apparel retailers.
Other volatile sectors in October included DIY and hardware stores, down a reported 20.4% against a double-digit positive comparative one year earlier; and music and video retailers, up a reported 22.3% in October. Health and beauty retailers, which had previously been a high-growth sector in the ONS index, saw reported growth moderate to a more regular 2.2% in October.
Department stores/mixed-goods retailers were broadly flat, following a five-month run of falling sales.
The ONS recorded shop-price inflation of 0.4% in October, down from 0.5% in September. In October, food-store inflation stood at 1.4% and nonfood retailer inflation stood at (0.2)%, both the same as September.
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*A small retailer is defined as one with fewer than 100 employees or with revenues of £60 million or less per year; all others are large retailers
**A relatively fragmented sector, in which reported figures have traditionally been volatile
Source: ONS [/caption]
Online Retail Sales Growth
Total Internet retail sales were up 8.5% year over year in October, versus 8.4% growth in September and compared to prior months’ generally double-digit growth. In October, Internet sales at food retailers were up just 1.9%, up 3.7% at nonfood retailers and up 13.6% at nonstore retailers. The implication is that Internet-only retailers (included within nonstore) are gaining meaningful share in e-commerce as multichannel retailers, in aggregate, lose ground.