Data in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Source: ONS/Coresight Research

Source: ONS/Coresight Research

RETAIL SALES GROWTH BY SECTOR

The ONS reported further solid retail sales growth in November. This was despite Primark and Sports Direct both cautioning that November had seen tough trading. John Lewis’s weekly sales figures in November indicated soft demand, with the exception of Black Friday week. ASOS last week reported a slowdown in sales, though this was driven by weak performance in Germany and France, while UK sales remained strong, albeit supported by additional promotions. Broadly in line with this picture, the ONS reported weak growth at clothing specialists and department stores/mixed-goods retailers, though Internet pure plays (ASOS’s sector) saw further double-digit growth. The ONS frequently reports volatile growth figures for some fragmented sectors, and this continued in November, with an surprisingly large rise in sales at specialist food stores and deep declines for floorcovering stores and, computers and telecoms retailers. Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its potential impact on big-ticket spending, the double-digit growth recorded for DIY and hardware retailers and the very solid growth recorded for furniture retailers and electrical-goods retailers may surprise some readers. Black Friday demand is likely to have supported some discretionary sectors.

*A relatively small or fragmented sector, in which reported figures have traditionally been volatile. **A small retailer is defined as one with fewer than 100 employees or with revenues of £60 million or less per year; all others are large retailers. Source: ONS

ONLINE RETAIL SALES GROWTH

Total Internet retail sales were up 13.1% year over year in November, versus 13.2% growth in October. In November, Internet sales grew 2.8% at food retailers, 15.4% at nonfood retailers and 13.8% at nonstore retailers. The ONS reported that online retail sales had exceeded 20% of all retail sales for the first time, which is in line with our e-commerce forecast for e-commerce to account for 20.6% of total November and December sales.