DIpil Das
US
| What’s New? | Trend Data | Positive or Negative* |
| Earnings vs. Inflation: In May, consumer price increases accelerated once more, growing 8.6% year over year and reaching a four-decade high. Average weekly earnings year-over-year growth slightly slowed in May to 4.3% but remained roughly in line with the previous two months. |
Average Weekly Earnings vs. Consumer Prices: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150413" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Data are not seasonally adjusted[/caption] |
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| Food and Fuel Prices: Food and gas inflation rates are significant metrics because higher costs in these categories can impact discretionary spending. US food-at-home inflation continued to accelerate in May. Food prices rose 11.9% from the previous year, while gas price inflation accelerated after slightly easing in April due to the beginning of the peak summer travel season. |
Consumer Prices for Food at Home and Gasoline: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150414" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Data are not seasonally adjusted[/caption] |
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| Retail Sales: Total US retail sales, excluding gasoline and automobiles, were nominally healthy in May, growing 6.5% year over year. Additionally, the US Census Bureau revised April’s estimates from a 6.4% year-over-year growth to 5.5%. Retail sales growth continues to underpace consumer price increases, implying that real sales growth has likely been in negative territory for three consecutive months. |
Total Retail Sales ex. Automobiles and Gasoline: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150415" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Data are not seasonally adjusted[/caption] |
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UK
| What’s New? | Trend Data | Positive or Negative* |
| Earnings vs. Inflation: In the UK, inflation continued to accelerate, albeit very slightly. Consumer prices grew 7.9% from the previous year, up from the 7.8% growth in April. After surging in March, average weekly earnings in the UK fell back. In April (latest available data), average weekly earnings grew 4.8%, in line with the growth recorded in January and February, but down from March, when average weekly earnings growth surged to 9.9%. |
Average Weekly Earnings vs. Consumer Prices: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150416" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Latest earnings data are for December; consumer prices are CPIH[/caption] |
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| Food and Fuel Prices: Higher costs for food and automotive fuel can impact discretionary spending. In May, UK food price inflation accelerated slightly quicker than in the past two months. Food price inflation grew to 8.7%, up from April’s 6.7% year-over-year growth. Automotive fuel price inflation remains high because of the economic consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, automotive fuel prices grew 32.8% in May, up from April’s 31.4% year-over-year growth. |
Consumer Prices for Food at Home and Automotive Fuel: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150417" align="aligncenter" width="300"]  Data are not seasonally adjusted[/caption] |
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| Retail Sales: Total UK retail sales growth continued to lose momentum in May, modestly growing 1.8% from the previous year. Meanwhile, sales volumes declined further to (5.7)%, reflecting the impact of rising prices on the UK consumer. |
Total Retail Sales ex. Automobiles and Automotive Fuel: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150418" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Data are not seasonally adjusted[/caption] |
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China
| What’s New? | Trend Data | Positive or Negative* |
| Income vs. Inflation: In May in China, consumer price increases remained healthy, increasing 2.1% year over year, in line with April. Data on per capita disposable income are released quarterly. In the first quarter of 2021, disposable income per capita grew 6.3% from the previous year, picking up speed from the 5.4% growth in disposable income per capita in the fourth quarter of 2021. |
Per Capita Disposable Income vs. Consumer Prices: YoY % Change [caption id="attachment_150419" align="aligncenter" width="300"] Disposable income data are quarterly[/caption] |
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| Food and Fuel Prices: Higher costs for food and automotive fuel can impact discretionary spending. In May, China’s food-at-home prices continued to increase slowly, growing 2.3% year over year. While the price increase is small, it is the second consecutive month of food price inflation after witnessing five consecutive months of food price deflation. Meanwhile, automotive fuel prices saw some easing. While remaining high, automotive fuel prices grew 33.5% from the previous year representing a second consecutive month of fuel price inflation easing, down from April’s 48.9% year-over-year growth. |
Consumer Prices for Food at Home and Automotive Fuel: YoY % Change  |
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| Retail Sales: Total retail sales growth in China remained negative for the third consecutive month—however, sales declines eased in May. Total retail sales declined 5.0% in May, an improvement from April’s 9.7% decline, reflecting the easing impacts of Covid-19 lockdowns and gradual reopenings of cities. | Total Retail Sales ex. Food Service, incl. Automobiles and Gasoline: YoY % Change
[caption id="attachment_150421" align="aligncenter" width="300"] From December 2020, our China retail sales index excludes food-service sales; data in prior reports included food-service sales. Data for January and February 2021 are aggregated.[/caption] |
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