What’s the Story?
Last year saw robust momentum in initial public offering (IPO) activity in the US and UK retail sectors—supported by expansionary monetary policies and strong equity markets—and IPO trends have massively accelerated so far in 2021.
In this report, we explore IPO trends in retail in the US and the UK in recent years, and key reasons for the substantial rise in retail-focused IPOs recently. We discuss the aftermarket performance of recently completed retail-focused IPOs and outline the opportunities and challenges for private retailers seeking to enter the public market via IPOs. Finally, we summarize noteworthy retail-focused IPO developments in the pipeline for 2021 and present our insights into why the future of IPOs in retail is booming for 2021 and beyond.
In April 2021, Coresight Research published a report on
special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), an alternative to IPOs. In that report, we explored what the significant rise in SPACs means for retailers and brands seeking to enter the US public market. In this report, we focus on the IPO markets in the US and the UK.
Why It Matters
IPOs provide solid opportunities for brands and retailers to enter the public market and access funds for business expansion. Recently, we have witnessed a substantial acceleration in IPO trends among retailers and brands across the US and the UK.
The US
In 2020, 25 retail and consumer goods IPOs debuted on US stock exchanges, raising $12.2 billion, compared to 20 IPO debuts in 2019, raising just $4.9 billion, according to Coresight Research analysis of S&P Capital IQ data. The IPOs included companies in the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors, such as Internet and direct marketing retailers, apparel and footwear specialty stores, food retailers, home-goods retailers, packaged foods manufacturers, personal care products manufacturers, consumer electronics manufacturers, automotive retailers, restaurants, breweries, software retailers and specialized consumer services providers, including payment platforms, among others.
The number of new IPOs has massively accelerated so far in 2021: As of April 30, 17 consumer IPOs have been listed in the US, raising $9.0 billion. We expect the trend to continue throughout this year and beyond, driven by anticipated continued low interest rates, strong equity market momentum and increasing Covid-19 vaccinations.
The UK
Unlike in the US, the consumer IPO market is small in the UK, but it is witnessing strong momentum. While 2020 was not an extraordinary year for consumer IPOs in the UK, it nevertheless saw substantial year-over-year improvement in IPO trends: Four consumer IPOs were listed on UK stock exchanges, raising $2.5 billion, versus three IPOs in 2019, raising $1.6 billion, according to our analysis of S&P Capital IQ data.
In addition, consumer IPOs have witnessed a spectacular rise so far in 2021. As of April 30, 11 consumer IPOs have been listed in the UK, raising $4.7 billion, already more than double the full-year tally for 2020, mainly driven by the public listings of Internet and direct marketing retailers (which we discuss in more detail later in this report).
We expect the solid momentum and confidence in the UK retail and consumer goods IPO market to continue through the remainder of 2021 and beyond, driven by a strong equity market, high liquidity availability and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.
Figure 1: The US and the UK: Gross Proceeds of IPOs in the Consumer Industry (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and IPO Count (Right Axis)
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*YTD as of April 30, 2021
Source: S&P Capital IQ/Coresight Research [/caption]
IPOs in Retail: Deep Dive
The US and the UK are witnessing bustling IPO markets. Retail-focused IPO issuances are increasing as public valuation multiples exceed private valuation multiples in the current equity markets of both nations. (Valuation multiples are financial tools that assess one financial metric as a ratio of another for comparable analysis—for example, the price-to-earnings ratio and enterprise value to EBITDA are the most widely-used valuation multiples to facilitate comparisons among retail companies. Lower these ratios, and the investors find the companies more attractive.)
In 2021, we expect continued growth in retail-focused IPOs, with institutional and individual investors continuing to put cash to work in a low-interest-rate environment.
Key Retail Sectors for IPOs
We assess the key retail areas that have witnessed the highest number of IPOs in the US and the UK for the period January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021.
The US
Internet and direct marketing retailers listed the highest number of retail and consumer goods IPOs, comprising about 35% of total transactions in the focus period, according to Coresight Research analysis of S&P Capital IQ data.
Going forward, we expect to see continued growth momentum in Internet and direct marketing retail IPOs. We also expect to see more IPO transactions in the apparel specialty and personal care sectors as they experience strong recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The payment services sector is also likely to see growth in the number of IPO listings, with more retailers and brand owners set to adopt a multi-channel approach and enhance their payment infrastructure in the post-pandemic environment.
The UK
In contrast to the US, the UK retail-focused IPO market has been heavily concentrated in 2020 and year-to-date 2021, with Internet and direct marketing retailers comprising around 75% of total transactions. The other retail sectors to have listed IPOs in the focus period are specialty stores and personal care.
Going forward, we expect retail-focused completed IPO transactions in the UK to widen in terms of sector representation.
Figure 2: The US and the UK: Completed Retail-Focused IPOs by Primary Industry (% of Total Consumer IPOs): January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021
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Source: S&P Capital IQ/Coresight Research[/caption]
Aftermarket Performance of Recently Completed Retail-Focused IPOs
Aftermarket performance—the variation in price of the company’s newly issued stock during a certain period after its IPO—is a useful metric to gauge the success of an IPO.
The US
Most of the completed retail-focused IPOs in 2020 and year-to-date 2021 have been witnessing negative aftermarket performance, with an average decline of 6.3% from January 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021—mainly due to volatility in the stock markets and concerns around surges in the number of new coronavirus cases. We provide a full list of completed retail-focused IPO transactions in the US for the period January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021, and aftermarket performance as of April 30, 2021, in Figure 3. However, Figure 3 excludes IPOs in the automotive retail, software retail, restaurants and breweries sectors, which were part of total IPOs listings shown above in Figure 1.
Some of the well-known IPO debuts, such as DoorDash and Poshmark, are registering poor aftermarket performance. We analyze these two companies in more detail below.
DoorDash, one of the largest food-delivery companies in the US, saw an 86% surge in its stock price on the first day of public listing on December 9, 2020. Stock continued to make gains until a post-pandemic pullback in mid-February 2021.
Furthermore, in its earnings call for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, held in February 2021, company management said that it expects declines in order values and consumer engagement as lockdowns ease and restaurants begin opening up, which has negatively impacted its stock performance. DoorDash is also fighting potential permanent caps on the commission and fees it can charge restaurants for delivery. Prior to the pandemic, DoorDash typically charged restaurants 20%–30% of an order, in addition to delivery fees for the customer. However, post pandemic, several states in the US have capped commission at 15% of orders, which has impacted the revenues of DoorDash.
Despite a pullback in its stock performance, DoorDash’s growth story seems intact. The company is looking to expand its grocery delivery space in the European market by acquiring a well-capitalized food-delivery service provider in Germany or the UK, as reported by Bloomberg on April 30, 2021.
The stock of Poshmark, a social marketplace for both new and secondhand apparel and footwear, has been on a downward slide since it provided revenue expectations for its first quarter of fiscal 2021 of $75.5–77.5 million—below consensus estimates of $80 million.
However, sales in Poshmark’s fourth quarter of fiscal 2020—ended December 30, 2020—were very strong, recording growth of 27% year over year to total $69.3 million, beating consensus estimates of $68 million.
Poshmark is looking to enhance its business by entering into new markets and new categories. In February 2021, the company expanded its marketplace offering to Australia, its first market outside of North America. Furthermore, the company launched a new category in February: new and used pet products, accessories and supplies. Poshmark’s management remains optimistic about consumer demand for its newly launched pet category.
Figure 3. The US: Retail and Consumer Goods Completed IPO Transactions, January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021
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The table excludes IPOs in automotive retail, software retail, restaurants and breweries sectors
Source: Company reports/S&P Capital IQ/Coresight Research
The UK
In the UK, most of the recently completed retail and consumer goods IPOs are witnessing positive price performance. We provide a list of key completed retail-focused IPO transactions in the UK for the period January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021, and aftermarket performance as of April 30, 2021, in Figure 4 (excluding IPOs in automotive retail, software retail, restaurants and breweries sectors, which were part of total IPOs listings shown in Figure 1).
However, average returns overall remained negative, at (5.3)% from January 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021—mainly due to the poor price performance of two big companies: CBD-based personal care products provider Cellular Goods and food-delivery giant Deliveroo, which overshadowed the positive performance of other IPOs. We analyze these two companies below.
Cellular Goods is an early-stage cannabis company, backed by former professional footballer David Beckham, who holds about 5% share in the company through his investment company, DB Ventures. Cellular Goods is launching two product lines: face-masks and serums, and roll-on athletica recovery gel. The IPO issue was oversubscribed by 13 times due to growing enthusiasm over the first UK-listed cannabis stock combined with Beckham’s influence. However, Cellular Goods has not sold any products so far and does not generate any revenues. With no existing revenue sources and an unprofitable business, there is uncertainty about the level of demand for its upcoming two product lines. Nevertheless, the UK is one of the fastest-growing markets for CBD-based consumer products, providing strong opportunity for Cellular Goods. The UK CBD market is set to reach £1.0 billion ($1.3 billion) by 2025, from around £400 million ($516 million) in 2020, according to Canex, a media platform for CBD and cannabis users, entrepreneurs and investors.
Deliveroo, the food-delivery giant backed by Amazon, has seen a surge of business during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the company has continued to witness a downward slide in its shares after making its high-profile debut—it was the biggest IPO on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capital since 2011.
Deliveroo has been facing persistent controversy over its delivery riders’ low compensation, which appears to have been impacting its stock price. Furthermore, in its first trading update since the IPO, on April 15, 2021, company management warned that the growth could decelerate as lockdowns ease, which did not go down well with investors. In addition, the company is also facing intense competition from the likes of Just Eat, another food-delivery platform.
However, Deliveroo’s story might yet be positive: There could be a gradual recovery in the company’s stock. The food-delivery giant is expanding its businesses across the UK by attracting new grocers, consumers, restaurants and delivery riders. On April 27, 2021, Deliveroo signed a two-year deal with UK-based grocer Waitrose to expand its delivery service to 150 shops across the nation by the end of summer.
Figure 4. The UK: Retail and Consumer Goods Completed IPO Transactions, January 1, 2020–April 30, 2021
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The table excludes IPOs in automotive retail, software retail, restaurants and breweries sectors
Source: Company reports/S&P Capital IQ/Coresight Research
Upcoming Noteworthy Retail and Consumer Goods IPOs
We believe there will be no shortage of retail and consumer goods IPO candidates in the near future, with retailers and brand owners across industries looking to tap the public markets via IPOs. However, the significant investment opportunities in the retail sectors will likely make investors more selective and price-sensitive, reflecting on recent aftermarket performance.
Below, we discuss some of the noteworthy upcoming retail and consumer goods IPOs in the US and the UK.
The US
DTC footwear brand Allbirds is interviewing with banks with an IPO in mind, as reported by
The New York Times on April 28, 2021. Allbirds reportedly looks to capitalize on investors’ increasing interest in emerging growth companies.
In September 2020, Allbirds raised $100 million of venture capital, which pegged the company’s value at $1.7 billion. At the time of raising funds, Co-CEO and Co-Founder Joey Zwillinger said, “The new cash would be used to build stores, add products and fund direct-to-consumer sales operations. Business can be a force for positive change, and this additional capital will allow us to further our mission of bringing more sustainable products to people around the world.”
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the company has witnessed strong demand for its products, including its iconic slip-on sneaker made from wool and other sustainable materials. Allbirds is continuing to expand its sustainable initiatives, having introduced a sustainable clothing line in October 2020.
Honest Company, the US-based consumer goods company founded by actress Jessica Alba, filed for an IPO on April 9, 2021. The company aims for a valuation of more than $1.5 billion. With its public offering, Honest Company plans to boost its online business and strengthen its presence in international markets.
Online grocery platform Instacart’s IPO plan was boosted after voters in California backed a ballot proposal in November 2020 that upheld the status of app-based delivery drivers as independent contractors rather than employees, benefiting the likes of Instacart and DoorDash in terms of costs. DoorDash also became public recently (as discussed above). Instacart has picked Goldman Sachs to lead its IPO, which it expects to take place in late 2021. Company management plans to use proceeds from the IPO to fund international expansion. Earlier in March 2021, Instacart raised $265 million in funding, increasing its valuation to about $39 billion.
Instacart has witnessed a strong increase in the demand for its delivery and pickup services since March 2020 after pandemic-related restrictions forced shoppers to flock to online marketplaces. In 2020, Instacart added 200 new retailers and 15,000 new stores and generated sales of $1.5 billion, turning the platform profitable for the first time. As of April 8, 2021, Instacart had more than 7.5 million customers.
Rent the Runway is interviewing investment banks for an IPO in 2021, as reported by Bloomberg on June 3, 2021. The fashion rental platform was hit hard by the pandemic in 2020 as in-person events were canceled and work-from-home trends accelerated, negatively impacting demand for renting one-off occasion pieces or office wear. In 2020, the valuation of the Rent the Runway’s business was reduced by $250 million to $750 million.
However, the digitally native retailer has been witnessing an improvement in consumer demand since markets began to reopen in May 2020. Between May 2020 and May 2021, Rent the Runway witnessed 92% growth in active subscribers. By the end of 2021, the number of Rent the Runway’s active customers will surpass 2019 levels, according to the company’s CEO Jennifer Hyman, as reported by
The New York Times in May 2021.
Rent the Runway is entering into the $33 billion fashion resale market to expand its reach and offer consumers more feasible entry points, as reported by CNBC on June 2, 2021. This move would see the company competing with the likes of Poshmark and ThredUp, which recently entered the US public market via IPOs.
Walmart has set up an internal IPO team to take its India-based subsidiary
Flipkart to the US public market via IPOs at an approximate valuation of $35 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, as cited by Bloomberg on April 6, 2021.
E-commerce platforms across the globe have emerged as clear winners from the pandemic-led consumer shift to online retail, prompting investors to bet on the future of the business. Earlier in March 2021, we saw South Korean e-commerce company Coupang go public in the US via an IPO.
Flipkart is one of India’s leading e-commerce players, with particular dominance in apparel, cell phones, consumer electronics and large appliances. The company has more than 300 million registered users in India. In fiscal 2020, Flipkart’s revenues increased by 12% year over year to ₹346.1 billion ($4.7 billion), while its losses decreased by 18% to ₹31.5 billion ($431 million). A successful debut for Flipkart in the US stock market could be a very significant milestone for
India’s retail startup ecosystem.
Warby Parker, a digitally native retailer of prescription eyeglasses, sunglasses and contact lenses, is in discussions with advisers for an IPO listing in 2021, as reported by Bloomberg on April 21, 2021. In fall 2020, Warby Parker raised $245 million of venture capital, which pegged the company’s value at $3 billion, igniting talk of a potential IPO listing.
The company’s Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Dave Gilboa, said in statement:
We have always explored different financing opportunities, and we have raised a lot of capital from some great investors on the private markets. Currently, we have plenty of cash on the balance sheet, and so we will continue to think about strategic decisions and strategic financing decisions going forward, but it’s really all with sustainable growth in mind. We would view going public as a financing event or a liquidity event.
Warby Parker has been a profitable company since 2019, as reported by the
Wall Street Journal on May 29, 2021. The retailer has been aggressively expanding its brick-and-mortar presence post Covid-19 and remains on track to open 35 new stores in 2021.
The UK
EG Group operates convenience retail stores, food retail outlets and petrol stations in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the UK and the US. The company is set to launch an IPO in 2021, as cited by Forex.com on April 9, 2021. In January 2021, EG Group appointed Stuart Rose, former Chairman and CEO of Marks & Spencer, as non-executive chairman, which emphasized the company’s IPO talks. With a valuation of about £10 billion ($13.8 billion), EG Group could likely become one of the biggest IPOs in the UK in 2021.
Earlier, in February 2021, EG Group entered into an agreement to acquire assets of UK-based supermarket chain Asda for £750 million ($1 billion). EG Group’s management expects the acquisition to be highly accretive to the Group’s financial performance. Following the acquisition of Asda, many investors will be keeping a close eye on the upcoming listing of EG Group. In April 2021, EG Group acquired fast-food restaurant chain Leon for £100 million ($138 million). The group expects the acquisition to complement the growth strategy in its retail operations and enhance its foodservice brand portfolio.
Voyager Life, a provider of CBD- and hemp seed oil-based wellness products, plans to get listed on the Aquis Stock Exchange in the UK via IPO in the second quarter of 2021. The IPO plans followed the company’s crowdfunding campaign launched in February 2021, through which it raised £874,000 ($1.2 billion), along with £741,000 ($1.0 billion) in private fundraising.
The company’s CEO, Nick Tulloch, said in statement:
At the time of our crowdfunding campaign in February 2021, we were clear with investors that our aspirations were to take Voyager onto the public markets when the time was right. The progress made by the business, coupled with strong investor backing, has enabled us to realize these plans far more rapidly than we originally envisaged. We believe that Aquis [Stock Exchange] provides an ideal platform for Voyager to continue to build its profile and provide our investors with liquidity whilst maintaining the company's EIS (Enterprise Investment Scheme) qualifying status.
EIS qualifying companies have to satisfy certain requirements at the time of issuing public shares and for the following three years.
Voyager Life’s management sees significant opportunity in the UK CBD market and states that the company has been growing its range of CBD and hemp seed oil products, including skincare products, bath products and oils, to capitalize on the opportunity.
Key Considerations for Private Retailers Entering the Public Market Via IPOs
As retailers and brand owners grow, there comes a point at which going public becomes the most effective way to raise capital. With IPO market momentum growing strongly, many private retailers are assessing their readiness to become a public company. However, navigating the IPO pathway to going public is an enormous undertaking, and many retailers should assess the resource and time commitment required.
The Road to Forming An IPO
From initial preparation to the public listing of companies, the process of forming an IPO usually takes 18–27 months, and then the execution of business strategies following the IPO can take years. We discuss the three primary phases of the IPO process below, summarized in Figure 5.
Figure 5. The IPO Process
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Source: Coresight Research[/caption]
1. IPO Planning and Preparation Phase
The initial stage of planning and preparation takes 12–18 months, which involves pre-IPO structuring of business—including transforming capital structure, enabling key management changes, and identifying and correcting possible organizational gaps or transactional issues.
After pre-IPO structuring of business, private retailers need to select an investment bank (also known as underwriter), which advises the company on its IPO and provides various services, including underwriting. The investment bank is selected keeping several criteria in mind, such as reputation and industry expertise of the investment bank and the quality of research they offer. Furthermore, the investment bank’s distribution—that is, its ability to provide the issued securities to more institutional or individual investors, is an important selection criteria.
In the first phase, investment banks perform various functions, including conducting due diligence and documenting filings with regulatory bodies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK.
The retailer, in collaboration with the investment bank, needs to create an equity story, which is the foundation for any successful IPO. The motive of the equity story is to create a vision for the organization while offering a compelling rationale for why investors should be interested in buying the stock. Retailers’ goals should be to maximize the company’s valuation at IPO (and the corresponding price appreciation when the stock begins to trade) by telling the company story in the most effective way possible.
2. Execution Phase: Meetings, Marketing and IPO Pricing
The second phase usually takes six to nine months, and in this phase, the investment bank conducts meetings with stakeholders and regulatory bodies, markets the company’s business, both online and through roadshows, and issues the prospectus, which includes the company’s long-term goals, business strategies and expansion plans.
Furthermore, the investment bank acts as a broker between the issuing retailer and the investor to help the issuing company conduct a valuation of the business and sell its initial set of shares. Investment banks gauge investor demand and carry out book building, a process by which an investment bank determines the price at which an IPO will be offered.
In most cases, the underwriting arrangement between the investment bank and the company going public guarantees the company that a particular sum of money will be raised via IPO. After the IPO has been brought to the market, the investment bank arranges analysts coverage of the company and tries to ensure aftermarket price stabilization of the stock issued.
3. Post-IPO Transition Phase
The post-IPO phase may continue for years. It involves the execution of business strategies and the promises that the retailer committed to in its prospectus. Retailers and brand owners should strive to beat market expectations in terms of both operational and financial aspects, and prove that they are strong performers for the long run.
Benefits and Challenges of IPOs for Retailers and Brand Owners
Like any other major financing transaction, an IPO involves complex processes and ample due diligence. In Figure 6, we present five benefits and five challenges for private retailers in entering the public market via an IPO.
Figure 6. Key Benefits and Challenges of IPOs for Retailers
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Source: Coresight Research
Five Key Insights into the Future Prospects of Retail-Focused IPOs
Below, we present five reasons behind the significant rise in retail-focused IPOs in 2020 and year-to-date 2021, alongside our insights into the positive outlook for IPOs through the second half of 2021 and beyond.
1. Expansionary monetary policies: The central banks across the US and the UK have lowered interest rates amid the pandemic, facilitating a low opportunity cost for investment in growing public companies. We expect the low-interest-rate environment to continue in the rest of 2021 and early 2022.
2. Strong equity market: The US and UK equity markets are witnessing strong growth momentum, and this makes IPOs an attractive investment option. The growth trends in these two nations’ equity markets are likely to continue throughout 2021.
3. Lofty valuation and pricing volatility: In early 2020, the US and UK stock markets witnessed extreme volatility amid the coronavirus pandemic. However, in the second half of 2020, we saw a new uptrend in stock markets, driven by massive liquidity—speculators, to capitalize on attractive valuations, invested significantly in IPOs in 2020 and year-to-date 2021, bolstering IPO trends. Going forward, we expect entrepreneurial speculative firms to continue to invest in IPOs to capitalize on volatile capital markets and make a short-term profit, although this may come at the cost of small individual investors.
4. Growing interests from private equity players: In 2020, we saw a surge in private equity-backed IPO listings, and the momentum has continued so far in 2021.
Many private equity firms have been seeking exits from investments made in the past. The stock market rally, along with the fiscal stimulus flooding the markets with cash, provides strong profitable opportunities for those buyout firms taking their portfolio companies public. Furthermore, during the bullish stock markets, investors have also been willing to pay a substantial premium for businesses that are perceived as high-growth stocks, boosting potential profit for those private equity firms taking their portfolio companies public.
Recent high-profile private-equity-backed IPOs include the public listing of UK-based apparel and footwear retailer Dr. Martens at a valuation of £4.5 billion ($7.6 billion) in January 2021. Dr. Martens was acquired by private equity firm Permira for £300 million ($484.9 million) in October 2013.
5. Increased receptiveness of the market to emerging growth IPOs: Investors are taking an active interest in companies that have benefited from pandemic-related consumer shifts to e-commerce. For example, public Internet and digital marketing retailers are gaining traction among investors.
What We Think
We expect 2021 to be a robust year for the US and UK retail and consumer goods IPO markets, driven by continued fiscal stimulus, ample liquidity, strong equity market momentum and optimism linked to Covid-19 vaccinations.
In 2021 and beyond, we expect the retail and consumer goods IPO pipeline to broaden in terms of sector representation, including more of the sectors, that are experiencing a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic—such as specialist stores and personal care—in addition to the bustling Internet and direct marketing retail sector. An uptick in retail IPO activity could well intensify the competition for investment, placing greater focus on preparing early for IPO and raising the company profile with investors.
As we gradually emerge from the pandemic, IPOs will provide opportunities for retailers and brand owners to access capital for liquidity and to fund expansion. However, if a retailer is considering an IPO to enter the public market, it needs to be careful to weigh all of the pros and cons of an IPO and take into account the alternative financing options available, such as SPACs.
Implications for Retailers and Brand Owners
- As IPO is only the beginning of a retailer’s journey to the public market, the company should consider the long-term consequences of the public listing and ensure that entering public market via IPO is aligned with their long-term goals and aspirations.
- Retailers and brand owners going public should design and maintain a system of internal controls over financial reporting, tax implications, restructuring activities and human resource management.
- To maximize the valuation in the IPO, retailers must ensure that their equity story provides investor confidence that management is focused on the right growth channels/verticals in the marketplace to demonstrate the growth trajectory. A retailer’s equity story should include the addressable market, company strategy, growth drivers, financial projections and management experience.
- Brands and retailers entering the public market via IPOs should remain vigilant for proposed regulatory changes and a potential stock market correction arising from growth in pricing volatility and the pace at which the world recovers from the pandemic.