Feb 14, 2019
2 min

First Round of US Tax Refunds Lower, Likely Due to Tax Changes and Government Shutdown: 2019 Tax Tracker #1

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Nitheesh NH
Each year, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reports tax return filings and refunds on a weekly basis, starting in February and going into the April 15 filing deadline. It is still early in the filing season, so there will likely be more variability to the data. Filings are likely delayed due to confusion over the new tax rates and the government shutdown, which made it difficult for accountants to get answers to help people prepare their income tax returns. As of February 1, 2019:
  • The IRS had received 16 million tax returns and processed 13.3 million of them. The number of returns processed was down 25.8% from the corresponding date a year ago.
  • Of the returns filed, 94.9% were electronically filed. Of those, 35.7% were prepared by tax professionals, the remaining 64.3% self-prepared.
  • Fewer people are using the IRS website to get information: the site logged about 66.3 million visits, down 10.9% from the year-ago period.
  • A total of 4.7 million refunds had been issued as of February 1, totaling $8.7 billion and averaging $1,865 each. The number of refunds issued was down 24.3% and the total amount refunded was down 30.6% year-over-year, and the average refund is down 8.4%.
  • Of those refunds issued, 95.8% were paid using direct deposit. The average direct deposit refund was $1,901, down 8.8% from the corresponding date last year.
The IRS data is shown in the table below.   [caption id="attachment_75636" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Source: IRS[/caption]   The graph below shows total annual refunds disbursed to consumers, which increased at a 1.5% CAGR during 2014–2018. Given a solid U.S. economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, once the disruption from the government shutdown is resolved. Still, a recent report from the National Taxpayer Advocate stated that the week the shutdown ended, the wait time to speak with an IRS representative had grown to 17 minutes, up from four minutes last year, and only 48% of callers were able to reach a live representative, down from 86%, last year, inflicting “real harm on taxpayers.”   [caption id="attachment_75637" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Source: IRS.[/caption]

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