Aug 31, 2021
25 min

Earnings Insights 2Q21, Week 5: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, Gap and Urban Outfitters Post Strong Results; Ulta Beauty Raises Guidance

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DIpil Das
Introduction Our weekly Earnings Insights reports look at key commentary and qualitative insights from major US retailers and brand owners on their recent performance, in terms of revenues and comps, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on second-quarter 2021 performance (ended July 31, 2021, for most companies). Companies featured are those within our Coresight 100 coverage list, and in this report, we focus on those that reported in the week ended August 22, 2021. For most retail companies covered in this series, the quarter under review will be the second quarter of fiscal 2021 (2Q21), although some companies have different year ends (Coty, for example). In May 2021, US retail sales grew by 14.0% year over year and by 19.3% when compared to 2019 values. June 2021 saw year-over-year retail sales growth decelerating to a still strong 13.0%. On a two-year basis, June’s sales were up 25.0%, the second-strongest sales growth of any month in the past year. In July 2021, retail sales growth slowed to a still strong 9.6% year over year. On a two-year basis, July’s sales were up 21.4%, the fourth-strongest growth in sales in the past year. Slowdown in July’s growth may be partly attributed to consumer concern over the spread of Covid-19’s Delta variant, impacting spending behaviors. However, overall demand for goods continues to remain strong, even as consumer spending is shifting back to services—July saw strengthening in traffic trends despite a surge in new Covid-19 cases. Looking ahead to projected sales in August, we expect retail sales to increase by about 10% year over year. We assess the recent performance of selected retailers and brand owners below.
Apparel and Footwear Brand Owners
Overall, apparel and footwear brand owners are witnessing a solid recovery. However, Guess? reported a single-digit revenue decline on a two-year basis. In the week ended August 8, Hanesbrands reported double-digit revenue growth on a two-year basis and VF Corporation reported high-single-digit revenue growth, while Ralph Lauren witnessed a low-single-digit revenue decline.

Guess?, Inc. (NYSE: GES) 2Q22
Commentary Revenues reached $629 million, up 58% compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2021, down 8% on a two-year basis. E-commerce business grew 11% in North America and Europe for the quarter versus last year. In North America, traffic has improved sequentially each quarter, but remains well below historical levels. The company is in the midst of back-to-school (BTS), and has seen solid demand for denim, activewear and knits. In addition, the company is seeing sequential sales growth for the dresses category. Both Guess? and Marciano brands are experiencing increases in sales of dressy apparel and accessories as the customer is returning to social life. The company has also been successful with handbags, and its men's business has been particularly strong. The gap between the performance of the company’s tourist-centric stores and non-tourist-centric stores is still wide, but narrowed significantly in 2Q22 versus 1Q22. This suggests that at least domestic travel is picking up, but total travel still remains significantly below historical levels. On the supply chain side, the company is seeing some cost pressures, particularly in freight and labor. Management said that Guess?’s product is running about four weeks late in terms of lead time to market. The company expects these conditions to persist for the rest of the year and in many cases into the next. The company could not complete all its shipments in the second quarter, and carries a backlog into the third quarter.
Outlook The company expects revenues in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 to be slightly negative to flat versus the third quarter of fiscal 2020 as pandemic-related traffic declines are almost offset by continued momentum in its global e-commerce business and the favorable shift of European wholesale shipments from the second quarter into the third quarter. For fiscal 2022, assuming no additional Covid-related shutdowns past the second quarter, the company expects its revenues to be down by mid-single digits versus fiscal 2020 and its operating margin to reach approximately 10%. The company is confident in its ability to reach its targets of $2.8 billion revenue and 12% operating margin by fiscal 2024.
Apparel Specialty Retailers

Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 20.7% year over year or by 45.0% on a two-year basis (compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019). Total comps grew 19.2% year over year compared to 20.7% comp growth in 2Q20 and 3.2% growth in 2Q19. E-commerce sales decreased by 28% year over year but increased by 111% on a two-year basis. E-commerce penetration stood at 18%, compared to 30% in 2Q20 and 12% in 2Q19. The company’s adjusted EPS grew by 148% on a two-year basis, driven by strong sales and gross margin expansion. CEO Lauren Hobart said, “Our strong Q2 comps were supported by double-digit sales growth across each of our 3 primary categories, hardlines, apparel and footwear; as well as increases in both average ticket and transactions. We're also seeing strong retention of the 8.5 million new athletes we acquired last year, and we added 2 million new athletes during this quarter. To increase engagement with our athletes, we are enhancing the experience across our entire omnichannel ecosystem. We are also making our stores more experiential. During Q2, we converted approximately 25 additional Dick's stores to premium, full-service footwear, and we added 50 new elevated soccer shops.”
Outlook For the full-year 2021, the company now expects sales to be $11.5–11.7 billion, versus prior guidance of $10.5–10.8 billion. The mid-point of the new guidance represents growth of 21% versus 2020 and 33% versus 2019. Dick’s now expects comparable sales growth of 18%–20%, versus prior guidance of 8%–11% growth. For 2021, the company expects adjusted EPS of $12.45–$12.95, with the mid-point being 108% above 2020 levels and 244% above 2019 levels. Dick’s reiterated its capital expenditure guidance of $370–395 million. In 2021, the company expects to open six new Dick’s Sporting Goods stores and eight specialty concept stores, including its first two Public Lands stores–an outdoor concept that targets consumers involved in outdoor activities, including biking, camping, fishing, hiking and kayaking.

Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 9.5% year over year and 28.2% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales increased by 6.9% year over year. The company’s operating margin stood at 11.6% versus 3.3% in the same quarter last year. CEO Richard Johnson said, “This quarter reflects strong results in our women's and kids' footwear business along with broad demand for our apparel and accessories offerings, which combined with more limited promotional activity, led to the outstanding top and bottom-line results.” During the quarter, the company announced strategic acquisitions of two footwear chains, Atmos and WSS, for a total of $1.1 billion; it expects the transactions to be completed by the third quarter of 2021. Furthermore, Foot Locker invested about $36 million in its digital capabilities, store fleet, supply chain and other infrastructure during the quarter. During the second quarter, Foot Locker opened 16 new stores, relocated or remodeled 23 stores and closed 57 stores. As of July 31, 2021, the company operated 2,911 stores in 27 countries in Asia, Australia, Europe, New Zealand and North America.
Outlook For fiscal 2021, Foot Locker expects comp growth to be in the low to mid-teens in percentage terms. The company forecasts the gross margin rate to be up 490–510 basis points year over year. Richardson said, “We anticipate the culture of basketball will continue to be a key revenue driver in the third quarter. Seasonal offerings will also be very important as consumers look to diversify their footwear purchases. Lastly, apparel trends continue to be very favorable as we enter back-to-school in the fall season. And the back-to-school presents an opportunity to capture more of that demand earlier in the quarter. That said, we're still facing several macro-level issues, from the global pandemic to the knock-on effect that it is having in our supply chain.”

Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 28.6% year over year, or by 5.1% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales increased by 12% on a two-year basis. By brand, Athleta’s sales increased by 35% on a two-year basis; Banana Republic’s sales declined by 15%; Gap’s sales declined by 10%; and Old Navy’s sales rose by 21%. In terms of comps, Athleta reported a 27% increase versus 2019; Banana Republic reported a 5% decline; Gap saw an increase of 3%; and Old Navy reported an 18% increase. Digital sales were up 65% on a two-year basis and represented 33% of the total business. The company’s operating margin stood at 10.2%, up 190 basis points from 2019 levels. CEO Sonia Syngal said, “We're prepared for back-to-school. Our kids and baby business has been a point of strength in both Old Navy and Gap. In between the two brands, we represent 9% of the market. That said, we are clear-eyed about the fluid ecosystem we operate within, from inflation to waste pressure or the recent surge of the Delta variant. The teams are mitigating supply chain headwinds from closures in the countries where we source and make our clothes and delays due to port congestion and transportation challenges.”
Outlook The company has revised up its fiscal 2021 sales and operating margin guidance. Gap now expects sales growth to be about 30% year over year, up from its prior guidance of low- to mid-20s percentage growth. The company issued adjusted operating margin guidance of 7.5%, up from prior guidance of about 5%, which reflects accelerated progress toward its goal of achieving a 10% operating margin by the end of 2023. The company reiterated its 2021 capital expenditure guidance of about $800 million.

Urban Outfitters (NYSE: URBN) 2Q21
Commentary Urban Outfitters reported a revenue increase of 44.1% year over year. On a two-year basis, the company’s sales increased by 20.3%. By brand, the company’s flagship brand Anthropologie led the way with sales growth of 24.4% on a two-year basis, followed by Free People Group, which grew 21.3%. By segment, retail saw growth of 23.9% from 2019 levels, while wholesale’s net sales declined 29.7%. The company’s gross profit margin increased by 478 basis points on a two-year basis, primarily driven by low merchandise markdown rates in the retail segment and leveraging of in-store occupancy expenses. The company reported an overall net income of $127.3 million, up from $34.4 million a year ago and $60.3 million in 2019.
Outlook The company did not provide financial guidance, but management remains optimistic for the remainder of the year. COO Francis Conforti said, “We believe our retail segment comp sales growth could land in the mid-teens range, while the wholesale segment sales could decrease at a rate similar to the second quarter, due in part to the realignment of the Free People brand customer base to focus on more regular priced selling. Together, this would result in total company sales in the low double-digit range. We believe our gross profit margins for the third quarter could show over 100 basis points of improvement in FY '20, largely driven by lower markdown rates as a result of strong consumer demand, solid product performance and disciplined inventory control.” Conforti further said, “The impact of Covid-19 is still driving numerous problems and cost pressures in many areas of the business: logistics, sourcing, fulfillment and the overall labor market remain constant areas of focus right now.”
Beauty Brands and Retailers
This week, we saw Ulta Beauty reporting double-digit revenue growth on a two-year basis, while Coty witnessed a double digit-decline in revenues on a two-year basis–although a strong sequential improvement. Last week, Bath & Body Works and Estée Lauder posted double-digit sales increases on a two-year basis. In the week ended August 1, 2021, L’Oréal reported positive sales growth on a two-year basis.

Coty (NYSE: COTY) 4Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 89.6% year over year, but declined by 29.5% on a two-year basis, a sequential improvement from a 48.4% decline in 3Q21 on a two-year basis. By channel, the prestige business’ sales increased by 160% year over year and accounted for 54% of total revenues in the quarter, driven by a strong performance in China and the US. Nearly all prestige brands’ sales were up double to triple digits, with a standout performance from Burberry, Calvin Klein, Chloe, Gucci and Marc Jacobs. The mass business increased by 44% year over year as the demand for color cosmetics improved during the quarter. By region, the Americas’ sales increased by 68.9% year over year, EMEA sales increased by 123.4% and Asia Pacific’s sales grew 70%. E-commerce sales increased by 36% year over year, against very strong comparatives. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $127.3 million, versus $(246.6) million in the same quarter last year.
Outlook Quarter-to-date 1Q22, the company is witnessing strong fragrance market momentum in the US and China, with signs of recovery in EMEA and in broader color cosmetics. For 1Q22, the company expects comp growth in the high teens in percentage terms. For fiscal 2022, Coty is aiming for comp growth in the low teens coupled with adjusted EBITDA of about $900 million, reflecting EBITDA margin expansion year over year.

Ulta Beauty (NasdaqGS: ULTA) 1Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 60.2% year over year, or by 18.0% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales increased by 56.3% year over year compared to a decrease of 26.7% in 2Q20, driven by 52.5% growth in transactions and a 2.5% increase in average tickets. Compared to 2Q19, bath, fragrance, hair care and skincare all delivered strong double-digit comp growth, although makeup reported slightly lower comps. CEO David Kimbell said, “While comp sales in the makeup category are not yet positive compared to 2019, momentum is building with both mass and prestige categories improving from the first quarter trend. Reductions in mask-wearing requirements, combined with an increase in makeup-wearing occasions, helped drive strong growth in face and lip, while engagement with eye continues to be healthy.” Gross margin increased to 40.6% compared to 26.8% in 2Q20, primarily due to improvement in merchandise margins, favorable channel mix shifts and leverage of fixed costs and salon expenses. Ulta Beauty ended the quarter with 34.6 million loyalty members, 8% above 2020 and 4% above 2019. Management said that spend per loyalty member also increased in the quarter, driven by higher average tickets, surpassing both 2020 and 2019 levels.
Outlook Encouraged by its 2Q21 performance, Ulta Beauty raised its fiscal 2021 guidance. The company now expects comp growth of 30%–32%, up from prior guidance of 23%–25%, and an operating margin of 13% versus prior guidance of 11%. In fiscal 2021, the company plans to open 44 net new stores and remodel or relocate 18 stores. Ulta Beauty reiterated its capital expenditure guidance of $225–250 million.
Department Stores
Major department stores are seeing solid recoveries from the crisis. This week, Nordstrom posted a mid-single-digit sales decline on a two-year basis. Last week, Macy’s and Kohl’s reported low-single-digit sales growth on a two-year basis.

Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 96.4% year over year, but declined by 5.6% versus two years earlier. Digital sales grew 30% year over year and represented 40% of total revenues during the quarter. The categories of shoes, apparel and accessories saw the largest improvements in sales trends relative to 1Q21 as consumers refreshed their wardrobes. Sales in active and home categories grew over 50% compared to 2019 levels. Total Nordstrom Rack sales declined by 8% compared to 2Q19, improving five percentage points from 1Q20. Management said that the company has completed the integration of Rack.com onto the Nordstrom.com platform. The company reported early indications of its Nordstrom Rack merchandise repositioning, with price-oriented offerings in Active, Home and Kids categories delivering a combined double-digit sales increase. The 70 Nordstrom Rack stores that have been repositioned for a price-oriented offering, had “new-to-Nordstrom customer accounts” increases of 16% over 2019. During the quarter, the company held its Anniversary sale, with total event sales increasing 1% over 2019. Management said that the company added new virtual and in-store events to drive engagement while also including digital catalogs with personalized editorial content and product recommendations, online wish list functionality and remote selling and styling tools. During the event, in-store pickup of online orders increased by 52% compared to 2019.
Outlook The company increased its full-year 2021 guidance and expects to deliver revenue growth of more than 35% versus fiscal 2020, up from prior guidance of 25%. This outlook assumes that consumer spending will continue to be supported by economic improvement and increasing consumer mobility in the second half of the year. Management expects a global supply chain backlog to persist for the remainder of the year, and is managing receipt flows to mitigate potential disruption. Specific strategies the company identified include pulling forward orders, expanding lead times and strategically using airfreight for the holiday season.
Discount Stores

Dollar General (NYSE: DG) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues decreased by 0.4% year over year, but increased by 23.9% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales decreased by 4.7% year over year, but increased by 14.1% on a two-year basis. By category, consumables sales increased by 1.8% year over year; seasonal sales decreased by 6.1%; home products sales declined by 4.2%; and apparel sales declined by 12.4%. Dollar General’s operating margin stood at 9.8%, and its adjusted EPS increased by 24.3% on a two-year basis. During the quarter, the company opened 270 new stores, remodeled 477 stores and relocated 25 stores. Dollar General also opened eight Popshelf stores in the quarter, increasing the total count to 16. Launched in 2020, Popshelf is a new concept that aims to engage customers by offering a fun and differentiated experience through continually refreshed merchandise, with about 95% of items priced at $5 or below. Furthermore, the company opened its first two store-within-a-store concepts, which incorporate a smaller footprint Popshelf shop into one of its larger Dollar General market stores. Management said that the initial reactions are positive and encouraging.
Outlook For fiscal 2021, Dollar General raised its financial guidance. The company now expects total sales growth of 0.5%–1.5% year over year, compared to its previous expectation of growth between (1.0)%–1.0%. Dollar General expects a comparable sales decline of 3.5%–2.5% year over year, which reflects growth of approximately 13%–14% on a two-year stack basis, compared to its previous expectation of a decline of 5–3% year over year. For fiscal 2021, the company expects adjusted EPS in the range of $9.60–$10.20, which represents 19%–23% growth compared to 2019; up from its previous adjusted EPS expectation in the range of $9.50–$10.20. The company reiterated its plans to execute 2,900 real estate projects in fiscal 2021, including 1,050 new store openings, 1,750 store remodels and 100 store relocations. As of July 30, 2021, Dollar General operated 17,683 stores in 46 states.

Dollar Tree (NasdaqGS: DLTR) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 1.0% year over year, or by 10.4% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales decreased by 1.2% year over year, but increased by 6.0% on a two-year stacked basis. Dollar Tree comparable sales decreased by 0.2% year over year, while Family Dollar’s comps declined by 2.1%, against the strong 11.6% increase in the prior year’s quarter. The company’s EPS increased by 11.8% year over year to $1.23. Its operating margin stood at 6.3%, compared to 6.0% in 2Q20. During the quarter, Dollar Tree opened 131 new stores, expanded or relocated 30 stores, and closed 37 stores. Additionally, the Company completed 470 renovations to the Family Dollar H2 or Combo Store formats.
Outlook For 3Q21, Dollar Tree expects sales of $6.40–6.52 billion, based on a low single-digit increase in comparable sales. For full-year fiscal 2021, the company expects sales to be $26.19–26.44 billion, based on a low single-digit increase in comparable sales.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NasdaqGM: OLLI) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues decreased by 21.4% year over year, but increased by 24.6% on a two-year basis. Comparable store sales decreased by 28.0% year over year, but increased by 15.3% on a two-year basis. The company’s gross margin increased by 10 basis points year over year to 39.2%, driven by an improvement in merchandise margin, partially offset by deleveraging of supply chain costs, predominantly the result of higher transportation expenses. Its operating margin decreased by 640 basis points year over year to 11% as a result of the deleveraging of all expense components owing to the decline in sales. During the quarter, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet opened 12 new stores, ending the quarter with 409 stores in 28 states, a year-over-year store count growth of 11.7%.
Outlook The company did not provide financial guidance. CFO Jay Stasz said, “For the third quarter this year, we expect comp sales growth of 5%–7% on a two-year stack basis. We are anticipating continued headwinds in gross margin due to the ongoing supply chain pressures impacting all retailers, including increased transportation and labor costs. We are expecting a gross margin rate of approximately 39.4%–39.5% for the full year. Our current plans include the following: the opening of 46–47 stores, including two relocations, with 30 stores under our belt.”
 
E-Commerce Players
E-commerce players continue to report strong top-line expansion, with JD.com reporting double-digit year-over-year sales growth for its second quarter of fiscal 2021. In the week ended August 15, we saw eBay reporting double-digit year-over-year sales growth in its latest quarter. In the week ended August 8, Alibaba reported that sales were up by one-third year over year in its latest quarter. Similarly, we saw Amazon reporting outstanding sales growth in the week ended August 1.

JD.com (NasdaqGS: JD) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 26.2% year over year, or by 68.9% on a two-year basis. The company’s operating margin stood at 2.6%, in line with the same quarter last year. As of June 30, 2021, the company’s annual active customer accounts stood at 532 million, an increase of 27.4% year over year. During the quarter, the company expanded its partnerships with LVMH to feature a full suite of LVMH’s BVLGARI brand products on JD.com. Furthermore, LVMH’s Berluti brand also established its first official global flagship store on JD.com.
Outlook The company did not provide financial guidance; however, CFO Ran Xu said, “We expect our retail business to largely maintain the growth momentum from 2020 on an apple-to-apple basis. That means we need to take out the impact of some Covid-related nonrecurring sales.”
Electronics Retailers

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) 2Q22
Commentary Total revenues increased by 19.6% year over year, or by 24.3% on a two-year basis. The company attributed the increase to strong customer demand for technology products and services during the quarter, strengthened by strong consumer spending ability due to government stimulus, improving wages and high savings levels. Comparable sales increased by 20% year over year, with domestic comp growing 38% and international comp increasing by 28%. In terms of product categories, the company generated strong comparable sales growth across several categories, with the largest contributors being computing, home theater, appliances and mobile phones. The company’s operating income increased by 40% year over year during the quarter.
Outlook For the third quarter, Best Buy expects comparable sales to decline by 1%–3% year over year and its adjusted gross margin to decline by about 30 basis points. For fiscal 2022, Best Buy has raised its comps guidance. The company now expects comp growth of 9%–11%, up from prior guidance of 3%–6% growth.
Home Retailers

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) 2Q21
Commentary Williams-Sonoma’s total revenues increased by 30.7% year over year, or by 42.1% on a two-year basis. The company’s comps grew 29.8% year over year, with all brands reporting strong growth: West Elm at 51.1%, Pottery Barn at 29.6%, Pottery Barn Kids at 18% and Williams Sonoma at 6.4%. Management said that e-commerce continued to drive strong sales growth and comprised over 65% of the company’s total revenues in the quarter. The company’s adjusted gross margin expanded by 710 basis points year over year to 44.1%, driven by higher merchandise margins and occupancy leverage of about 210 basis points.
Outlook For fiscal 2021, Williams-Sonoma raised its sales growth guidance. The company now expects revenue growth to be between the high teens and low 20s in percentage terms, up from the prior target of low-double-digit-percentage revenue growth. The company expects an adjusted operating margin of 16%–17%. For the long term, the company continues to forecast sales growth in the mid-to-high single digits as it aspires to reach $10 billion in revenues by 2024.
Off-Price Retailers
Off-price retailers witnessed robust recovery in the latest quarter, with Burlington Stores posting over 30% sales growth on a two-year basis. As we reported last week, Ross Stores and TJX witnessed over 20% sales growth on a two-year basis.

Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) 2Q21
Commentary Total revenues increased by 119% year over year and by 34% on a two-year basis. Comparable sales increased by 19% year over year. Management reported strong comp growth during the quarter due to four major factors: the residual impact of the federal stimulus payments distributed in March; pent-up demand as Covid-19 vaccines became more widely available and consumer spending picked up; the beginning of the monthly child tax credit payments in July; and the company’s execution of its Burlington 2.0 strategies. Management said that all major merchandise categories outperformed plans, and comps in all regions were ahead of expectations. The company noted that its 16 new smaller-format stores (launched in the spring) are performing ahead of targets. Management said that the supply chain headwinds—including freight and supply chain expense pressures between demand and available capacity—are causing disruption in deliveries of merchandise, resulting in a significant spike in international and domestic freight rates. The company noted that wage rates are also increasing as there is competition to increase staffing levels to meet higher volumes.
Outlook Burlington increased its baseline expectations to 10% comp growth for the fall season from the previous expectation of flat growth, owing to stronger-than-expected performance in the year to date. However, management said that the company is planning conservatively due to the Delta variant, “as it is unclear what impact this may have on consumer spending in the weeks ahead.” In fiscal 2021, Burlington expects to open 100 new stores and close or relocate 25 stores for a net addition of 75 stores. Management reported that it expects to incur significantly higher freight and supply chain expenses in 3Q21 as supply chain disruption continues.
Looking Forward
Apparel specialty retailers reported another robust quarter, with Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, Gap and Urban Outfitters posting positive sales growth on a two-year basis. Based on encouraging results in the current quarter, Dick’s and Gap have raised their full-year guidance. For fiscal 2021, Dick’s now expects comparable sales growth of 18%–20% year over year, versus prior guidance of 8%–11% growth. Gap now expects sales growth to be about 30% year over year in fiscal 2021, versus prior sales growth guidance of low- to mid-20s percentage range. Foot Locker expects comp growth to be in the low to mid-teens in percentage terms in fiscal 2021. For the next quarter, Urban Outfitters expects sales growth to be in the low double digits. Overall, apparel and footwear brand owners are witnessing a strong recovery, although with pockets of weakness. For the full fiscal-year 2022, Guess? expects revenues to be down mid-single digits on a two-year basis. In the week ended August 8, Hanesbrands and Ralph Lauren reported that they have revised up their sales guidance: Both companies expect strong double-digit year-over-year growth for fiscal 2022. In the same week, VF Corporation reported that the company expects sales growth of around 30% year over year for fiscal 2022. Off-price retailers reported another solid quarter, with Burlington Stores posting double-digit sales growth on a two-year basis. As we reportedlast week, for fiscal 2021, Ross Stores expects comparable-store sales gain of 10%–11% versus the 2019 level, while TJX noted that its e-commerce offerings on HomeGoods.com will launch in the next quarter and the company expects that it will attract new customers. While the home category continues to outperform for these retailers, they are also seeing strong trends in apparel categories. For the BTS sales season, both Ross Stores and TJX remained optimistic. Ross Stores continued to expand its store estate. However, supply chain pressures and higher freight costs remain headwinds. Major department stores are seeing solid recoveries from the crisis, and they remain optimistic about the rest of 2021. Nordstrom raised its full-year 2021 guidance and expects to deliver revenue growth of more than 35% versus fiscal 2020, up from prior guidance of 25%. As we reported last week, both Kohl’s and Macy’s have raised their full-year sales and EPS guidance: the former’s new EPS guidance represents its highest EPS ever. Both companies expect a strong BTS season this year and are well-positioned in terms of inventory. These department stores are seeing strong trends in various accessories, apparel and footwear categories, such as activewear, denim, dresses, fine jewelry and sneakers. They also expect a strong holiday season, but expect substantial headwinds, including elevated levels of holiday shipping surcharges, potential unforeseen impacts of Covid-19’s Delta variant, supply chain constraints and a tight labor market. Within the beauty category, bath, fragrance, haircare and skincare are recovering strongly, while demand for makeup is recovering gradually. Ulta Beauty raised its fiscal 2021 guidance and now expects comp growth of 30–32%, up from prior guidance of 23%–25%, while Coty targets comp growth in the low teens for fiscal 2022. As we reported last week, for the next quarter, Estée Lauder expects sales growth of 17%–19% year over year and adjusted EPS growth of 7%–14%, while Bath & Body Works forecasts an EPS decline of 27%–34%. Electronics retailer Best Buy has raised its comps guidance for fiscal 2022. The company now expects comp growth of 9%–11%, up from prior guidance of 3%–6% growth. In the home and home-improvement retail sector, Williams-Sonoma raised its sales growth guidance for fiscal 2021 and now expects the revenue growth to be between the high-teens and low-twenties in percentage terms, up from the prior revenue growth target of low double-digits. As we reported last week, Lowe’s expects to generate sales of $92 billion in fiscal 2021, representing two-year comps of approximately 30%. Management at Home Depot sees a supportive environment for home-improvement spending over the coming years and noted that during the first two weeks of August, the company’s US comps have been consistent with the second quarter. Similarly, in the week ended August 8, management at Wayfair stated that 3Q21 net revenues will be “somewhat below” 1Q and 2Q levels, but it is “confident that revenue dollars should accelerate sequentially into Q4.”

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