In this report, we review the performance of U.S. retail over December and the holiday season, looking at newly released retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Our measure of core retail sales is non-seasonally-adjusted sales excluding gasoline and automobiles. This metric increased by just 1.0% year over year in December, slowing dramatically from the growth in preceding months, including a 5.2% uplift in November. This resulted in total holiday-period sales coming in at $693 billion, up by just 2.9% year over year. This was below our forecast of 4.0% year over year growth — and our forecast had been one of the more conservative in the market: Many research firms forecast a bumper holiday season.  [caption id="attachment_76574" align="aligncenter" width="666"] Through December 31, 2018. Data are not seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau[/caption] Retail Sales Decline Month Over Month The Census Bureau’s own core metric is seasonally adjusted retail sales including automobiles and gasoline. Sales by this measure grew 2.1% year over year in December, down from the 4.0% rate seen in November. On a month-over-month basis and seasonally adjusted, retail sales declined by 1.3% in December.  [caption id="attachment_76575" align="aligncenter" width="666"] Through December 31, 2018, data are seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau[/caption] Retail Sales Growth by Sector All major sectors saw slowing growth in December, except clothing stores and electronics and appliance retailers. Clothing stores proved particularly robust, with year-over-year growth nudging up to 4.7%, even as department stores saw flat growth in November turn into negative growth in December. Even sectors that focus on nondiscretionary categories, such as grocery retailers and health and personal care stores, saw growth soften in December. Non-store retailers, which include high-growth Internet retailers, registered year-over-year sales growth of 3.7%, a sharp slowdown from the double-digit growth observed in prior months. The data below are seasonally adjusted.  [caption id="attachment_76576" align="aligncenter" width="660"] Data are seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau[/caption] Store-Based Retail Traffic and Sales Store-based traffic declined 5.9% in December and sales declined 6.2% year over year. See our US Monthly Retail Traffic and In-Store Metrics Report for a more detailed review of year-over-year changes in selected store-based metrics, including sales, traffic and conversion rates.