China’s National Day has become a seven-day holiday, running October 1-7 every year. The holiday is popularly known as “golden week” – and during which millions of people travel. In this report, we discuss the number of tourists, spending, emerging trends and how various popular destinations will fare. Travel and Spending Has Been Rising Steadily According to the data from China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of Chinese tourists and per capita spending during golden week grew steadily from 2015 to 2018, reaching 726 million tourists in 2018 and a per capita spending of ¥825 ($116). This year’s National Day holidays (from October 1 to 7) are expected to see over 800 million Chinese tourists traveling, according to travel agency Ctrip. Per capita spend is expected to moderate to ¥828 ($117) in 2019. [caption id="attachment_96936" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism/The Beijing News/Ctrip/Coresight Research[/caption]   Longer Trips are Becoming Popular Over 40% of travelers take more than seven days off by adding annual leave or other methods, especially for people traveling overseas or tours with more than one destination, according to data from Ctrip. Overseas trips and trips that include multiple destinations in one time will become more common in the future. [caption id="attachment_96937" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: Ctrip/Coresight Research [/caption]   Younger Generations Make Up More than Half of All Travelers According to travel data provided by Ctrip, 31% of tourists during golden week were born after 1980, while 22% were born after 1990. Some 28% will travel with children (figures 2 and 3). [caption id="attachment_96938" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: Ctrip/Coresight Research [/caption]   [caption id="attachment_96939" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Source: Ctrip/Coresight Research [/caption]   Travelling Costs will Increase During Golden Week, Although Competition May Push Down Prices for Popular Destinations According to data from Ecwalk and Lvmama, travelling packages will be more expensive during golden week as demand surges, starting September 26, peaking October 1 and steadily declining after October 4.

• Japan, Thailand and other destinations are nearly twice as expensive as usual.
• Hotels in Thailand may raise prices 20-30% during the period. Most seaside hotels have already been booked.

However, certain destinations have gained in popularity, which has actually driven down prices due to factors such as increased competition and more direct flights when compared to last year.

• The cost of a package tour to Australia and New Zealand has dropped 6% year over year.
• The prices of some routes to central and south America have dropped as much as ¥7,000 ($987) year over year.

Ctrip and Lvmama: National Day Golden Week Travel Trends Report 2019 Ctrip identified the trends it sees for this year’s golden week, and these include:

1. The top overseas holiday destinations this year are expected to be Japan, Thailand, Italy, Russia and the US, in that order. The most popular destinations in 2018 were Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore.
2. The most popular destinations within China are Lanzhou, Xining, Urumqi, Ejin Banner, Beijing, Lijiang, Kunming, Sanya, Guilin and Zhangjiajie, in that order. The most popular destinations for self-planned trips are Sanya, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Xian, Xiamen, Lijiang and Zhuhai. According to online travel agency Lvmama, Hainan, Yunnan, Sichuan, Beijing, Fujian, Gansu, Mongolia, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi are the top ten places destinations for both tour groups and individual travelers.
3. Most travelers are from Shanghai, followed by Beijing and Guangzhou. Residents of first-tier cities are more likely to spend on travel.

Winners and Losers We see Italy and Lanzhou as the biggest beneficiaries of travel during this year’s golden week, while Hong Kong is expected to lose out. Italy has become one of the most popular destinations for Chinese tourist:

• As an important country of China’s Belt and Road policy, the partnership between the two countries has been strengthened after Chinese president Xi Jinping paid a friendly visit in March this year.
• The Italian government promise to introduce more suitable tourist routes for Chinese people before 2022, and numerous artistic sights, delicious food and deep connection between China and Italy make the country more desirable for Chinese visitors.

Lanzhou, the capital and largest city in China’s northwest Gansu Province, jumped to the number one spot as the most popular domestic destination for tour groups in 2019, up from number six in 2018, according to the City Tourism Vacation Index Report.

• Tourists to Lanzhou are mostly people born between 1980-1999, accounting for almost 40% of the total, followed by people born 10 years earlier. Some 67% of tourists take short trips of less than 3 days, while just 30% go for 4-6 days.
• Famous for its hand-pulled noodles, Lanzhou has become more popular as it serves as a transit point between the western region and central-to-eastern cities, especially the Qinghai region of Xinjiang.
• Lanzhou also has a dubious reputation as being less safe and with a serious traffic problem, which puts off many travelers but more adventurous younger Chinese are more willing to go.

Hong Kong is likely to suffer most this year due to the ongoing protests:

• Last year, 152 million tourists visited Hong Kong from the mainland, some 44% of total inbound tourists.
• According to Hong Kong Tourism Board, the number of travelers fell 4.8% in July and by some 30% on the first half of August. As most travelers plan trips in advance, the protests had limited effect in June and July, but we expect the decline to continue until the protests subside.
• Twenty-two countries have issued travel warnings for Hong Kong, and Singapore, Australia, the US and Canada have raised their alert levels for Hong Kong travel.

Key Insights Chinese tourists will continue to spend during the golden week holidays, benefiting retailers globally, with over 800 million Chinese people travelling. We see more young people travelling and there is a trend for longer trips. Italy and Lanzhou are expected to be the most popular travelling destinations and Hong Kong may see lower traffic.