Trading Update
In its pre-close update for 1H19, ABF noted that first-half comparable sales at Primark are expected to be down 2% versus the StreetAccount consensus estimate of a 1.9% decline. ABF expects Primark's total sales to be up 4% both as reported and at constant currency, versus consensus of 4.3% growth at constant currency.
ABF noted that Primark performed well in the UK: Its 2% year-over-year gain in sales outperformed the market. UK comparable sales are expected to be flat year over year, with management pointing to an improvement in comps since its last update in January. November saw weak store traffic but Primark saw “good trading” in all other months.
Eurozone sales are expected to be up 5% in total, but down 3% on a comparable basis, dragged down by Germany. Management said sales growth was particularly strong in Spain, France, Italy and Belgium. Trading continues to be difficult in Germany, where Primark has strengthened its management and planned focused marketing to improve performance — an unusual move for a company known to spend little on advertising. It is also preparing to cut selling space at a small number of German stores to optimize costs.
The US business "continues to perform strongly," with “excellent trading” at its new Brooklyn, New York, store combined with positive comparable sales elsewhere. Its US operating loss has reduced thanks to positive underlying growth and cutting store space in Freehold, New Jersey, and Danbury, Connecticut, last year.
Primark’s 1H19 operating margin is expected to be “well ahead” of the same period of the preceding year, helped by currency shifts, better buying, tight stock management and reduced markdowns.
The company opened four new stores in the period: in Seville and Almeria in Spain, Toulouse in France and Berlin. In the UK, it relocated one store and extended another.
Outlook
Management believes a stronger US dollar will hurt operating margin in the second half of the year. For the group, the outlook was unchanged, with adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share for FY19 expected to be in line with FY18.
Primark expects to open 900,000 square feet of new selling space in FY19, with 400,000 in 3Q19 alone. At the same time, it will close a smaller store on Oviedo, Spain, and reduce space at its store in the King of Prussia Mall in Pennsylvania. Primark will open its first store in Slovenia in the summer. It has signed a lease for its first store in the Czech Republic.
ABF reports its full 1H19 results on April 24.